Tag Archive for fivethirtyeight.com

The Math Still Doesn’t Work for Bernie

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Senator Bernie Sanders was an upset victor in the Indiana primary Tuesday;  he won the state by a margin of about 5% after spending nearly $2 million on TV advertising compared with Hillary Clinton spending nothing.  The margin of victory on delegates is something like 6.  Of the remaining primaries, there are not enough available pledged delegates…

#HillaryOrBust

Hillary Clinton in OC in 2005

If you’re so inclined to play PowerBall or any of the big money California Lottery games (and who doesn’t from time to time), there’s an old saying — “A Lottery is a Tax on people who are bad at math.”  Your likelihood of winning the Grand Prize in any big money lottery is significantly less…

The Math eliminates Bernie, Crowns Hillary; Time to Face Facts

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Tuesday’s 5 for 5 primary victory in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Missouri and Illinois means unless there is a major implosion by Secretary Hillary Clinton, the Democratic nomination is all but wrapped up.  The Democratic Party is the first major party to offer a woman as a candidate for president.  For those who #FeelTheBern, the…

Latest Projections for Maine Question #1

From Nate Silver over at FiveThirtyEight.com we have his latest analysis of the anti-Gay Marriage measure on the ballot in Maine, Question #1. Maine — Question 1 — “Do you want to reject the new law that lets same-sex couples marry and allows individuals and religious groups to refuse to perform these marriages?” . The…

Will Texas Secede from the Union?

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0LHrIxc-QyE[/youtube] Back in 2004, when George W. Bush won the smallest precentage victory for the re-election of a president in wartime, HBO host Bill Maher had a commentary on Real Time where he used a phrase to descrive the South, “Upon further review, you can go.” making a reference to the South’s attempt to secede from…