Polling Finds Katie Porter with a Lead in California’s 45th Congressional District
From August 10-14, 2018, Tulchin Research conducted a survey of 500 likely November 2018 voters in California’s 45th Congressional District on behalf of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC). Our poll finds a favorable environment for Democrats and the potential to flip this seat blue with Katie Porter leading this competitive race.
Porter Leads Walters Initially with Few Undecided Voters
Our survey finds encouraging results as Democratic challenger Katie Porter currently leads by three points over Republican incumbent Mimi Walters (49% Porter to 46% Walters and 5% undecided). In an even more positive development for Porter and Democrats, voters are mostly solidified in their corners as only five percent are undecided leaving very little room for Walters to make up the gap.
Favorable Environment for Democrats as Trump Is Disliked
The current political landscape puts this upscale traditionally Republican district in Democrats’ crosshairs as several data points suggest it is now very much a swing district. Trump is underwater (45% total favorable to 54% total unfavorable and 49% very unfavorable, -9 fav-unfav) in this district he lost by 5 points in 2016. Voters rate his job performance even more poorly (43% total good job to 56% total not good, 48% poor, -13 good-not good). The incumbent Congresswoman’s ratings are nearly as bad as her favorability ratings are evenly split (44% total favorable to 45% total unfavorable, -1 fav-unfav) while voters are even more negative when it comes to assessing Walters’s job performance (42% total good job and 47% total not good job, 5 good-not good). In contrast, Porter has a far better standing with voters with much lower negatives (35% total favorable to 16% total unfavorable, +19).
Given these dynamics of Porter leading the horserace while voters have a negative view of Walter’s performance as their representative in Congress and an even more negative view of President Trump, Porter has an excellent opportunity to win this Republican-held seat for Democrats in November.
Survey Methodology: From August 10-14, 2018, Tulchin Research conducted survey research among 500 likely November 2018 primary election voters in California’s 45th Congressional District conducted using live professional interviewers calling both landlines and cell phones as well as collecting data online through e-mails from the voter file and text messaging to cell phones. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 4.38 percentage points.