Porter Pulls Ahead of Walters in New CD-45 Poll

Polling Finds Katie Porter with a Lead in California’s 45th Congressional District 

From August 10-14, 2018, Tulchin Research conducted a survey of 500 likely November 2018 voters in California’s 45th Congressional District on behalf of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC). Our poll finds a favorable environment for Democrats and the potential to flip this seat blue with Katie Porter leading this competitive race.

Porter Leads Walters Initially with Few Undecided Voters

Our survey finds encouraging results as Democratic challenger Katie Porter currently leads by three points over Republican incumbent Mimi Walters (49% Porter to 46% Walters and 5% undecided). In an even more positive development for Porter and Democrats, voters are mostly solidified in their corners as only five percent are undecided leaving very little room for Walters to make up the gap.

Favorable Environment for Democrats as Trump Is Disliked

The current political landscape puts this upscale traditionally Republican district in Democrats’  crosshairs as several data points suggest it is now very much a swing district. Trump is underwater (45% total favorable to 54% total unfavorable and 49% very unfavorable, -9 fav-unfav) in this district he lost by 5 points in 2016. Voters rate his job performance even more poorly (43% total good job to 56% total not good, 48% poor, -13 good-not good). The incumbent Congresswoman’s ratings are nearly as bad as her favorability ratings are evenly split (44% total favorable to 45% total unfavorable, -1 fav-unfav) while voters are even more negative when it comes to assessing Walters’s job performance (42% total good job and 47% total not good job, 5 good-not good). In contrast, Porter has a far better standing with voters with much lower negatives (35% total favorable to 16% total unfavorable, +19).

Given these dynamics of Porter leading the horserace while voters have a negative view of Walter’s performance as their representative in Congress and an even more negative view of President Trump, Porter has an excellent opportunity to win this Republican-held seat for Democrats in November.

Survey Methodology: From August 10-14, 2018, Tulchin Research conducted survey research among 500 likely November 2018 primary election voters in California’s 45th Congressional District conducted using live professional interviewers calling both landlines and cell phones as well as collecting data online through e-mails from the voter file and text messaging to cell phones. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 4.38 percentage points.

Mimi Walters films a campaign spot in Old Town Tustin July, 2018


  22 comments for “Porter Pulls Ahead of Walters in New CD-45 Poll

  1. Boboso
    September 29, 2018 at 9:33 pm

    Will be interesting to see if this lead holds amongst independent voters in light of recent events.

  2. BAboso
    September 30, 2018 at 9:15 am

    Yeah, sure. Is some kid saying she molested him?

    That reminds me, when do you break the Phil Bacerra #metoo allegations?

    Oh right. He’s the candidate of the SAPD and gentrifiers, as well as one of Dan C’s few good friends. So it won’t be happening on THIS blog!


  3. Dan Chmielewski
    September 30, 2018 at 12:32 pm

    Impressive use of two IP addresses, perhaps a VPN and email anonymize program to make two comments that make little sense. The NY Times made thousands of calls and Porter has opened a five point lead. Porter speaks out on Kavanaugh and Mimi says nothing.

    On Bacerra, all those rumors have changing details. The truth is “mean texts” were exchanged between a couple that broke up. There was never a #metoo with Phil Bacerra like there was with Julio Perez who had tons of progressives say nothing or defend him when the investigation against Perez was devastatingly brutal.

    Sorry for the delay in responding. I was out to breakfast with a group of friends.

    • 4th District Resident
      September 30, 2018 at 8:32 pm

      “Sorry for the delay in responding. I was out to breakfast with a group of friends.”

      You have a group of friends? Do you show up at Denny’s in superhero costumes? I bet the busboys get a hoot out of that.

      • Dan Chmielewski
        October 1, 2018 at 10:13 am

        That’s pretty funny. I doubt you emerge from your parent’s basement where you eat your failure pile of cereal in your sadness bowl.

    • Spitting Image Manipulator
      October 1, 2018 at 12:47 pm

      I’m salivating to see whether this blog covers the accusations that Phil Bacerra spit in his ex-girlfriend’s face!

      • Dan Chmielewski
        October 1, 2018 at 2:00 pm

        Send me evidence it happened

      • Dan Chmielewski
        October 1, 2018 at 2:01 pm

        This is the same IP address used by Greg Diamond three times

        • 4th District Resident
          October 1, 2018 at 4:01 pm

          So you check on everybody’s IP address? So sad. So paranoid. Fortunately, you don’t have many commenters.

          Well, gotta run – picking up my Aquaman costume from the cleaners.

          • The Nanny
            October 1, 2018 at 9:07 pm

            Good one Dave Zenger (AKA The Nanny).

            What happened to your Fullertons Future Characters, did someone discover you live in……..Anaheim, At least this is a better fake name.

            • 4th District Resident
              October 2, 2018 at 7:51 am

              Guess again, Green Lantern.

              • Dan Chmielewski
                October 2, 2018 at 10:38 am

                Ooooo, which Green Lantern? There are several without even getting to the Green Lantern Corps. BTW, the email used by “The Nanny” cracked me up.

          • Dan Chmielewski
            October 2, 2018 at 10:37 am

            It takes a second to check; and some of the comments from Diamond on this IP address are certainly his. It’s just an observation. And one worth sharing. I honestly don’t need validation from commenters like other blogs do. If you really think this blog and commenters keep me awake a night, you’re sadly mistaken.

            • Spitting Image Manipulator
              October 4, 2018 at 9:22 pm

              Thanks for setting that precedent here, owner; one never knows when it will come in useful.

  4. Perry Van Dead
    October 4, 2018 at 5:22 pm

    Just received the most gracious thank you note from Vern Nelson:

    “To all my friends, colleagues and ESPECIALLY CALIFORNIA TAXPAYERS, Thank You.

    As you know, I suffered a serious medical emergency this week, I was hospitalized overnight am now recovering.

    As you also know, I am recovering hopeless alcoholic, I am unemployed, on felony probation and largely rely on your generosity for basic neccessities, like food and medicine (AKA ANABUSE).

    Because I am jobless, unemployable and broke, I can not afford to pay my medical bills (I thought to go back to the TFT well (Tait Family Trust), but Julie is mad since I called her out for calling Jeff a “Fag” (not very kind), so I used medi-cal again.

    I know Californians will agree that I DESERVE FREE MEDICAL CARE, and support my belief that prisoners and cop killers are hero’s, that dirty pigs (cops) are to blame for crime. I especially agree we should legalize METH and allow women, like Lorri to be groped (She’s a Mexican like me, she’s used to it).

    Anyway, thanks for the $21,000. Hospital visit, Donna was able to steal several linens and other supplies for the totally free market too!

    Mike, got any of those Primo Cigars for a sick Friend?

    • Spitting Image Manipulator
      October 4, 2018 at 9:31 pm

      Classy. The gratuitous swipe at Donna is very much in keeping with this blog’s covering up allegations against Phil Bacerra. — so that’s a fitting touch.

      • Cward
        October 5, 2018 at 3:43 pm

        Ask Donna who gave her the black eye. yesina knows. But someone is intimidating her from speaking out. Hey Vern. Come clean. You know how Donna got that black eye. Fess up

        • Dan Chmielewski
          October 5, 2018 at 4:51 pm

          Oh sounds like there’s going to be a fight on Anna drive tonight

    • kenlaysnotdead
      October 5, 2018 at 5:42 am

      Ah. We always suspected Bacerra was one of the secret anonymous commenters here. Looks like we were right.

      • Dan Chmielewski
        October 5, 2018 at 12:25 pm

        “we” would be wrong; Phil has never commented on this blog. I’m almost certain of it

  5. Spitting Image Manipulator
    October 4, 2018 at 9:35 pm

    Thanks for setting that precedent here, owner; one never knows when it will come in useful.

Comments are closed.