A new poll of likely primary voters shows that Katie Porter’s profile and message not only make her the best-positioned Democrat to emerge from the CA-45 jungle primary, but also the one most likely to defeat Mimi Walters in the general election. In a largely unknown field of Democratic challengers, Porter starts out ahead of the other Democrats. More important, the poll reveals Porter’s profile to be especially resonant in this competitive Clinton-won district, driving her to a large advantage over the other Democrats in a simulated race and demonstrating her ability to not only consolidate Democratic support but appeal to NPP voters and moderate Republicans as well.
KEY SURVEY FINDINGS:
- Porter starts the race leading all Democrats. In a four-way ballot test (Porter, Min, Forde, Walters), Porter leads all Democrats with 12% of the vote, trailing only incumbent Republican Mimi Walters (45%). Min and Forde trail Porter with 8% and 3% of the vote, respectively. An additional 28% of likely primary voters remain undecided, driven by non-Republicans who are waiting to learn more about the Democratic candidates.
- Porter’s profile is the most resonant with primary voters, driving her to a strong lead over fellow Democrats. After voters hear balanced, positive profiles of four of the leading candidates (Walters, Porter, Min, and Forde), using actual language from their websites and stump speeches, Porter surges to 29% and moves well ahead of the other Democrats (44% Walters/29% Porter/7% Min/6% Forde). The remaining candidates’ vote shares remain essentially unchanged, as shown in table below, making Porter’s dramatic growth even starker.
| INITIAL VOTE | VOTE SHARE AFTER | CHANGE IN VOTE | |
| SHARE | PROFILES | SHARE | |
| Mimi Walters | 45% | 44% | -1 |
| Katie Porter | 12% | 29% | +17 |
| Dave Min | 8% | 7% | -1 |
| Brian Forde | 3% | 6% | +3 |
| Other | 4% | 1% | -3 |
| Undecided | 28% | 13% | -15 |
- Porter appeals across party lines, putting her in a strong position to defeat Walters. Porter’s profile, touting her experience as a renowned consumer advocate who has taken on big banks that cheat middle-class families, resonates with voters from across the political spectrum. After balanced profiles on all four candidates, Porter not only earns a 45% plurality of Democrats (28 points ahead of Forde), but also a 37% plurality of NPP voters (12 points ahead of Walters and 23 points ahead of Min). She also proves to be the strongest Democrat among registered Republicans, earning 9% of the vote to Dave Min’s 3%.
ABOUT THIS POLL
Global Strategy Group conducted a survey of 500 interviews in total, including a base sample of 250 likely primary voters and an additional 250 non-Republican likely primary voters (weighted to accurately represent the likely electorate) in California’s 45th Congressional District from January 9th to 14th, 2018. The margin of error at the 95% confidence level is +/- 4.4%. The margin of error on sub-samples is greater.
Editor’s Note: Questions asked of pollsters to respondents was not offered. There is no information about who paid for the poll.
—
A Quirk in WordPress won’t let me update this post but the polling firm tells TheKiberalOC that the poll was paid for by Katie Porter for Congress.
Our “friends” at the OJ blog are reporting on an internal poll by the Doug Applegate for Congress committee in CD49 showing the Colonel with a double digit lead over Mike Levin who has dramatically outraised the Colonel and has lots more endorsements.
Perhaps all the Democrats running in CD49, 48, 45, and 39 can get together to fund a truly independent poll just to see where everyone is.
With CDP endorsements coming up, lobbying is getting intense and candidates are starting to turn on each other. It’s not pretty
It’s not accurate to equate this poll which was paid for by the candyate but conducted by an external polling company with an internal poll conducted by a campaign. This appears to be a well conducted poll and the pollster Global Strategy Group has a decent reputation. In the past this pollster has been similar to Gallup in it’s accuracy – meaning pretty good, but not awesome. It is a reputable organization and there’s no reason to doubt this poll more than any other scientific poll from similar organizations – all of which are imperfect in their accuracy (hence the margin of error).
Both show a dramatic increase in support for the candidate that paid for the poll; it’s all about how you ask the questions. And it would have been smart for the Porter campaign to stat up front that they paid for this poll instead of me having to dig for it.
Nicole, this IS an internal poll, as in it’s paid for by the campaign. An “external” poll would be one not paid for by a campaign, but by an outside group (like NBC or Pew).
The problem with internal polls is that it’s easy to manipulate the questions to get the results you want, whether the pollster is reputable or not. Who you sample, the questions you ask, all matter.
Thank you for posting this–I questioned who paid for the poll. I believe the TheLiberalOC should update their story to make this clear. My spidey-senses told me it was a “paid-for” poll. I have not yet decided which candidate I prefer but things like this are not endearing Katie to me.
In a recent straw poll at Canyon Democrats, Katie came in second after Dave Min. The results were 62.78%, Katie 28.33%, Kia 7.22%, and Forde at $1.67%. So as a favorite after hearing them all speak, Katie came in second at 34.45% less than Dave Min. A big difference in terms of those who heard them all. So this poll at this early date is a meaningless measure of who can win and needs to be relegated to an attempt to forge ahead in the race by a private poll.
The straw poll required people to pay to join to vote. Not exactly a “free election.” It was also of Democrats able to travel to Irvine on a Sunday. A total of like 60 people voted. Kia and Brian did not speak. So, the straw poll is way less reliable than a professionally conducted poll of several hundred Democrats, No Party Preference, and Republicans.
The Canyon Democrats straw poll had 400+ people in it, according to the organizers. And all 4 candidates spoke. I don’t know the makeup of Democrats, No Party Preference, and Republicans.
There is a reason why Global Strategies gets a C+ Pollster rating from FiveThirtyEight. Not knowing what the actual questions were ( which could be leading questions), plus the unacceptably shoddy record of accuracy, makes this result meaningless.
Melissa Fox endorsement of Porter will hurt her. Most of Irvine feels burned by her. If Porter wants to succeed, she should look for better endorsements than flip flop Fox.