A new poll of likely primary voters shows that Katie Porter’s profile and message not only make her the best-positioned Democrat to emerge from the CA-45 jungle primary, but also the one most likely to defeat Mimi Walters in the general election. In a largely unknown field of Democratic challengers, Porter starts out ahead of the other Democrats. More important, the poll reveals Porter’s profile to be especially resonant in this competitive Clinton-won district, driving her to a large advantage over the other Democrats in a simulated race and demonstrating her ability to not only consolidate Democratic support but appeal to NPP voters and moderate Republicans as well.
KEY SURVEY FINDINGS:
- Porter starts the race leading all Democrats. In a four-way ballot test (Porter, Min, Forde, Walters), Porter leads all Democrats with 12% of the vote, trailing only incumbent Republican Mimi Walters (45%). Min and Forde trail Porter with 8% and 3% of the vote, respectively. An additional 28% of likely primary voters remain undecided, driven by non-Republicans who are waiting to learn more about the Democratic candidates.
- Porter’s profile is the most resonant with primary voters, driving her to a strong lead over fellow Democrats. After voters hear balanced, positive profiles of four of the leading candidates (Walters, Porter, Min, and Forde), using actual language from their websites and stump speeches, Porter surges to 29% and moves well ahead of the other Democrats (44% Walters/29% Porter/7% Min/6% Forde). The remaining candidates’ vote shares remain essentially unchanged, as shown in table below, making Porter’s dramatic growth even starker.
|INITIAL VOTE||VOTE SHARE AFTER||CHANGE IN VOTE|
- Porter appeals across party lines, putting her in a strong position to defeat Walters. Porter’s profile, touting her experience as a renowned consumer advocate who has taken on big banks that cheat middle-class families, resonates with voters from across the political spectrum. After balanced profiles on all four candidates, Porter not only earns a 45% plurality of Democrats (28 points ahead of Forde), but also a 37% plurality of NPP voters (12 points ahead of Walters and 23 points ahead of Min). She also proves to be the strongest Democrat among registered Republicans, earning 9% of the vote to Dave Min’s 3%.
ABOUT THIS POLL
Global Strategy Group conducted a survey of 500 interviews in total, including a base sample of 250 likely primary voters and an additional 250 non-Republican likely primary voters (weighted to accurately represent the likely electorate) in California’s 45th Congressional District from January 9th to 14th, 2018. The margin of error at the 95% confidence level is +/- 4.4%. The margin of error on sub-samples is greater.
Editor’s Note: Questions asked of pollsters to respondents was not offered. There is no information about who paid for the poll.