The Democratic Party will make history again Tuesday night when Hillary Clinton wins the New Jersey Primary and becomes the first woman to earn the nomination of a major party for president of the United States. That’s a plain and simple fact. With strong victories in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands this weekend, Clinton is just 25 delegates away from clinching the nomination and she’s up by about 20 percentage points in New Jersey where the polls close at 5PM PDT Tuesday night (California still has three hours to go).
Using the 2008 election as a guide, Bernie Sanders isn’t nearly as close to Clinton as Clinton was to Barack Obama. But she saw the writing on the wall and pledged her support to Obama. Sure, some Hillary supporters wouldn’t go the extra mile to back Obama in the November election but most did. The notion that the Philadelphia Convention will be “contested” in any way because Super Delegates can’t vote until then isn’t going to change the outcome.
From the Washington Post:
Clinton will finally clinch a majority of the pledged delegates, i.e., the delegates that are bound by the voting in primaries and caucuses. The upshot of this will be that at that point, the only thing keeping Sanders’s candidacy alive will be the existence of super-delegates and the possibility of flipping them, and Sanders has regularly blasted their very existence as undemocratic. In other words, after tomorrow, in a world where super-delegates didn’t exist, Clinton would be the winner of the nomination.
Here’s the math. There are a total of 4,765 delegates — 4,053 pledged delegates, and 712 super-delegates, who support the candidate of their personal choice. To get the nomination you need a majority of the overall delegates, i.e., 2,383 of them. Clinton will not have this outright majority through pledged delegates alone, and will need super-delegates to put her over the top. That won’t formally happen until the convention, but news orgs will project her the winner, since she is already estimated to have 548 of the super-dels in her corner.
But after tomorrow, she will have finally won a majority of those pledged delegates for the first time, and the voting will be all but over (except for the D.C. primary next Tuesday). Right now Clinton leads Sanders by 1,809-1,520 among pledged delegates. (If you include super-delegates, the totals are 2,357-1,566, but again, that’s not official.) If Clinton wins only one third of the nearly 700 remaining pledged delegates at stake tomorrow — and she’ll win far more — she will have at least a 2,027 majority of the 4,053 pledged delegates. This will be the case even if Sanders wins California.
Thus, for the first time, Sanders will no longer be able to say that we still have yet to hear the will of all the voters in the Dem nominating contest. And for the first time, he will have to say unequivocally that the super-delegates should override that now-established aggregate will of the voters.
It’s time for Bernie Sanders to do the right thing. When all is said and done Tuesday, there is no way he is going to win the nomination. For a candidate who is not a registered Democrat, who lectures the Democratic Party establishment (primarily made up of super-delegates) on how corrupt they are (Google “Bernie Sanders accuses…” and see what you get), and how the system is rigged by demanding rules changes to by-hook-or-by-crook secure Sanders the nomination, Bernie is actually doing more harm to the party than help. You can’t drag Party leaders though the mud and then demand they flip their vote to help you. Bernie has failed to learn that simple lesson.
Sanders continues to say that most polls show him doing better in a head to head match up with Trump, and that’s true. But should he be the nominee, the Republicans will tear Sanders apart. Clinton eats Republican-inspired scandals for breakfast.
The system isn’t rigged when Clinton has 3 million more votes than Sanders. The system isn’t rigged when she wins the states with the largest number of Democratic voters by large margins. The rules of the game are the rules of the game — Sanders knew this when he signed up to play.
Washington Post political writer Dana Milbank said it best on Twitter:
“Getting a lot of hate mail simultaneously from Trump and Bernie supporters; disturbing part is how similar they sound.”
By stretching it out through the convention, Sanders aids one person only — Donald Trump. He’s not helping himself. He’s not helping Hillary. He’s not helping the Democratic Party. He’s not helping America. And Ralph Nader would finally have the monkey off his back for the 2000 election. Surrender Bernie. It’s time to elect the best candidate in 2016 for president and that person is Hillary Clinton.