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The Math Still Doesn’t Work for Bernie


Senator Bernie Sanders was an upset victor in the Indiana primary Tuesday;  he won the state by a margin of about 5% after spending nearly $2 million on TV advertising compared with Hillary Clinton spending nothing.  The margin of victory on delegates is something like 6.  Of the remaining primaries, there are not enough available pledged delegates to secure the nomination for Sanders without superdelegates.

Clinton has a chance to secure the nomination on pledged delegates alone, but for Sanders, he needs a path followed by Ted Kennedy in 1980 and Gary Hart in 1984 and both of those were not successful.  And Donald Trump is no Ronald Reagan.

Looking ahead, the BernieBros would find a good use of their time actually reviewing Hillary’s Wall Street plan which is far more detailed than Bernie’s.  They’d be wise to see her plans to build on ACA to improve healthcare for everyone.  And more importantly, take a good hard look at Clinton’s role in raising money for downticket races compared to their own candidate.  And once they do this, they’ll see that on policy issues, Clinton and Sanders are closer than they might think.

Should Sanders become a spoiler — a la Ralph Nader in 2000 and 2004 — he’d enable a Trump presidency.  Both CNN and the New York Times are reporting that Clinton has a 10% lead over Trump in new polls of their head-to-head match up.  Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight.com missed Indiana and Michigan, but he’s been pretty spot on for most of the primary season.

Another site to view is http://www.270towin.com/maps/bMcf which has a Hillary vs. Trump map up based on states that have already been polled that shows Clinton has a commanding lead over Trump and when you consider states not polled, Clinton does pretty well in about half of the not polled states.  My map shows Hillary winning 381-157.

Again, the Math no longer works for Bernie Sanders.  I’m hoping that he can be as classy as Clinton was in 2008 when she suspended her campaign and backed Obama.  Here’s her speech on June 7, 2008.  It’s worth your time and shows how she unified the Democratic Party in 2008.