Tuesday’s 5 for 5 primary victory in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Missouri and Illinois means unless there is a major implosion by Secretary Hillary Clinton, the Democratic nomination is all but wrapped up. The Democratic Party is the first major party to offer a woman as a candidate for president. For those who #FeelTheBern, the math isn’t in your favor. Bernie sanders needs to win every remaining state by 58% placing the odds of this happening at better than winning the PowerBall jackpot.
It’s time to come together to unite against the Trump or Cruz ticket — both equally awful and deterimental to the Republican Party especially down ticket.
Here’s what the numbers crunchers at www.fivethirtyeight.com have to say (they aren’t perfect but they are right more often than wrong). There is simply no way Bernie will take 58% of the vote in New York or California. Not happening,
Here’s some prose from Nate Silver himself:
I’m intrigued by the parallels to the 2008 campaign perhaps because it’s where FiveThirtyEight cut its teeth. I spent a lot of time in the spring of 2008 arguing that Obama’s lead in elected delegates would be hard for Clinton to overcome. But Clinton’s lead over Sanders is much larger than Obama’s was over Clinton at a comparable stage of the race. At the end of February 2008, after a favorable run of states for Obama, he led Clinton by approximately 100 elected delegates. Clinton’s lead is much larger this year.1 Clinton entered Tuesday’s contests ahead of Sanders by approximately 220 elected delegates. But she’ll net approximately 70 delegates from Florida, 20 from Ohio, 15 from North Carolina and a handful from Illinois and Missouri. That will expand her advantage to something like 325 elected delegates.
Sanders will need to win about 58 percent of the remaining 2,000 or so elected delegates to tie Clinton. Since the Democrats allot delegates proportionally, that means he’d need to win about 58 percent of the vote in the average remaining state to Clinton’s 42 percent, meaning he’d need to beat Clinton by around 16 points the rest of the way. Sanders would also have to overcome Clinton’s huge lead in superdelegates, although that’s probably the least of his worries. (If Clinton goes from winning the average state by double digits to losing it by the same margin, something cataclysmic will have had to have happened, likely sending her superdelegates scurrying for the exits.)
The second half of the calendar appears more favorable to Sanders than the states that have voted so far. Pretty much all of the South has voted, other than Maryland (if you consider it a Southern state), so Clinton doesn’t have many more delegates to rack up there. Not very much of the West has voted, and it will probably be a good region for Sanders. New York has lots of delegates, and could be interesting for Sanders, as could California. Pennsylvania could theoretically be a good state for Sanders, although it appears less promising for him after Clinton’s big win in Ohio.
Sanders can’t afford to merely come close in these states, as he did on Tuesday. Nor would narrow wins suffice. He needs to win these states going away to make up for his delegate disadvantage.
As far as Hillary’s liberal chops go, she has them and has been endorsed by a boatload of organizations known for liberal positions on the issues.
The danger here is the “Bernie or Bust” voter — the one who sits out the election because Bernie Sanders isn’t the nominee. Call me crazy but I want a registered Democrat to be the Democratic Party nominee; Bernie is an independent who caucuses with Democrats…a big difference. A “Bernie of Bust” voter is a vote for Trump or Cruz. Democrats need to hold on to the White House and Hillary Clinton will make history as our nation’s first female president.