The current unofficial turnout numbers for the 2014 Primary Election in Orange County sit at 16.9 percent. In comparison turnout in 2012 was 26.5 percent, and the worst ever in Orange County was in 2006 with 21.5 percent voting. Low turnout drives the results in a primary election tilting in favor of whichever party holds a better registration lead, and turnout average. In Orange County the numbers tilt strongly in favor of Republicans.
Democratic voter turnout (preliminary numbers) hovers at 16.3 percent and Republican voter turnout sits at 21.1 percent. That nearly 5 percent margin has an effect on the final numbers. Here’s how things look for key races in Orange County this morning.
Second District County Supervisor
In the second district Supervisor contest, to replace termed out Supervisor John Moorlach, Republican candidates Michelle Steel and Alan Mansoor (both Republicans) will face each other in November’s General election. Steel currently leads with 46.6 percent of the votes to Mansoor’s 23.5 percent
Fifth District County Supervisor
In the fifth Supervisor’s district contest, to replace termed out Supervisor Pat Bates, Republicans Robert Ming currently leads with 29.4 percent to Lisa Bartlett’s 29 percent. They will face off in the November General election.
65th State Assembly
In the 65th State Assembly contest, challenger Young Kim (R) leads Sharon Quirk-Silva (D) 54.7 percent to 45.3 percent. In 2012 Quirk-Silva cam in at 41,2 percent against incumbent Chris Norby, ultimately winning the general election with 52 percent of the vote. Most analysts predicted that Quirk-Silva would lose the primary contest because of depressed voter turnout and a narrow gap between registered Democrats and Republicans in the district. Quirk-Silva should be helped in the General election by expected higher Democratic voter turnout and a 1.8 percent advantage in registered Democrats.
74th State Assembly
In the 74th State Assembly district Republicans Keith Curry and Matt Harper will face each other in the general election. Curry currently leads Harper, 27.8 percent to 24.4 percent.
In the 34th State Senate district, the contest to replace termed out Senator Lou Correa has Janet Nguyen (R) with 52.4 percent facing Jose Solorio who has 32.3 percent of the primary votes. This is relatively good news for Solorio,as increased Democratic turnout in November, and the 3.4 percent lead in registered Democrats, should help him overcome Nguyen’s numbers.
73th State Assembly
In the 74th Assembly District contest, the sole Democrat, Wendy Gabriella was the top finisher in this heavily Republican district (based on registration), primarily due to the large number of Republican candidates. Gabriella will face Republican William “Bill” Brough in the General election. It would be a significant diversion from history for Gabriella to overcome the 22.2 percent lead Republicans hold in voter registration in this district.
In the Fifth Trustee Area election for County Board of Education, 34-year incumbent Elizabeth Dorn Parker was upset by Laguna Niguel Councilwoman Linda Lindholm. The current numbers have Lindholm with 56.2 percent to Parker’s 43.8 percent. We note that Lindholm is the wife of the ultra-conservative-Republican Lincoln Club of Orange County President Wayne Lindholm. We do not doubt that support from the Lincoln Club played a major factor in this low level contest.
In Anaheim, Measure D which would have changed the term of the Mayor to a two-year term was soundly defeated 54.4 percent to 45.6 percent. It has been alleged by Tait and other opponents that the measure was put forward (orchestrated) by the current council majority. It was heavily backed by the powerful Anaheim Chamber of Commerce. The measure was opposed by a conservative PAC’s and Mayor Tom Tait. We note that the measure was unanimously placed on the ballot by the city council and mayor, and that no council members publicly advocated for the measure’s passage.
In the Irvine United School District, former appointed member Ira Glasky, who had to step down because of a petition drive to call a special election for the term that currently ends at the end of this year, came out the winner in the special election to replace former Trustee Gavin Huntley-Fenner.
For complete results of the Orange County balloting CLICK HERE.