SANTA ANA — For those of us hoping for a successful come-from-behind victory (for 2nd place) in the 69th and 72nd Assembly district contests, Tuesday brought only disappointment. From where I sit, it looks like success will be a bit too high of a hurdle to clear.
In the 69th Assembly contest Julio Perez only advanced on Joe Moreno by 203 votes. He earned only 234 out of 691 ballots cast, 33.86%. That percentage was less than the 36% he had on Monday. In addition to Perez reducing his margin by 3%, Moreno increased his portion of the take by 5.5%. In short, the votes for Perez went in the wrong direction. 691 votes were added to the totals in the 69th, and an additional 106 ballots tabulated that either had no votes, or more than one vote, in the contest.
At the end of the day, 797 of the estimated 1,575 ballots remaining were counted on Tuesday. There are 778 ballots remaining to be tabulated. Based on the percentage of over and under-votes recorded Tuesday, we can surmise that about 103 of the remaining ballots will have no vote to be recorded, leaving 675 valid ballots. To surpass Moreno, Perez will need to gain a net of 404 votes. That’s a long way to go, and to get there Perez would need to get seven votes to every one vote for Moreno. Not very likely.
The projections look even worse for Joe Dovinh in the 72nd Assembly race. Dovinh lost ground on Monday by 58 votes. He now sits at 279 votes behind Travis Allen. Long Pham also closed the distance between himself and Dovinh by nine votes. They are now separated by 71 votes. There are 1,327 ballots remaining to be counted, but after today’s numbers, it looks unlikely that Joe Dovinh will pull off a come-from-behind victory over Travis Allen. It is even possible that he will lose third place to Long Pham.
The counting continues this morning, but it’s looking like we can expect that the first and second place finishers on election night, will be facing off in the November general election.