Race for Second Place Narrows in 69th and 72nd Assembly Contests

On Monday the Orange County Registrar of Voters tallied 2,401 votes at 24 counting stations for the day. In the 69th AD Julio Perez closed the distance to Jose “Joe” Moreno by 80 votes, he’s now at 526 votes behind. In the 72nd  AD Joe Dovinh moved to 221 votes behind Travis Allen, gaining 24 votes. Closing in on on third place is Long Pham who narrowed the distance to Joe Dovinh by 14 votes, he’s now only 82 votes behind.

Julio Perez (Photo: Lou Delgado)

Provisional ballots (1,432) made up 59.64 % of the 2,041 total ballots counted yesterday. the Votes counted today should primarily be provisional. In the 69th, Perez pulled 36% of the ballots counted compared to Moreno’s 10.49%. This was the first time in the ballot counting since Election day that Perez has led in percentage of votes counted. We are waiting for official tallies of how many ballots remain in the 69th, but we estimate that the number is somewhere between 2,000 and 3,000. I expect that Perez will pull an even greater percentage in the tally today.  If the percentage of votes continues on its current trend, it looks like Perez will be able to overtake Moreno in the final tally.

UPDATE: The Registrar of Voters indicates that, as of this morning, there are 1,575 ballots in the 69th and 2,120 in the 72nd remaining to be counted.

Long Pham (Campaign Photo)

In the 72nd, it is just too close to call. There is a significant chance that given the current trend, Long Pham could overtake Joe Dovinh for third place. The trend is looking a bit better for Travis Allen to hold on to second place. We should no more with today’s mostly provisional ballots.

The candidates and their supporters in these two contests will be biting their nails for the next several days. About10% of the provisional ballots were counted yesterday, with 14,030 left to count. Hopefully we’ll know the final numbers and whether or not there will be recounts by Friday.

  3 comments for “Race for Second Place Narrows in 69th and 72nd Assembly Contests

  1. santa ana citizen
    June 12, 2012 at 9:01 am

    69th AD prediction:

    -There will be roughly 3,300 to 3,400 additional votes tallied for the 69th AD: This will be roughly 22.3 to 22.7 percent of the remaining votes talliedcounty wide;

    -Julio will outperform Jose Moreno by between 18 to 30 percent of the remaining vote;

    -Julio will win by between 75 to 262 votes;

    -There will be a recount if Julio loses; there will not necessarily be a recount if Jose Moreno loses (unless it is funded by Daly’s campaign or JOBSPAC)

  2. June 12, 2012 at 12:25 pm

    If there really are only 1575 ballots left in AD-69, then Julio needs to outpoll Moreno by about 33%. Not impossible, but daunting. If the proportion of provisionals was consistent across districts yesterday, though, then that means that Moreno might have gotten about 21.5% of the 40% of the non-provisionals, which would be about 8.5% — meaning that he got the other 2% of his vote yesterday from the 60% that were provisionals — a little under 3%.

    If Moreno’s at 3% of provisionals, Julio could readily win it with 36% of them; he was probably above 40% of provisionals yesterday.

  3. Joe Hill
    June 12, 2012 at 6:07 pm

    This party is over. With today’s numbers it looks like Pérez and Dovinh won’t be able to catch up. I’ll have more tomorrow morning.

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