Primary Election Analysis

The first top-two primary election in California has concluded. The results show some clear winners, some losers, and some nail-biter contests whose results will not be final for days. There are a total of 113,199 remaining Vote-By-Mail, Provisional, and Paper ballots left to count. With numbers this large it is possible that some of the contests, with narrow margins between the second and third place finishers, will flip. Here is how the remaining ballots break down:

Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots to count: 35,772
Total estimated number of provisionals to count: 15,462
Total estimated number of vote-by-mail ballots returned at the polls to count: 59,034
Total estimated number of election day paper ballots left to count: 2931

Troy Edgar

Troy Edgar (Campaign Photo)

The closest of these contests is in the 72nd Assembly district. Los Alamitos Councilman Troy Edgar has a comfortable 4,156 vote lead with 28.5%. Battling it out for second place are Travis Allen with 9,579 votes to Joe Dovinh’s 9,351, a 228 vote difference.

OC Clerk-Recorder Tom Daly (Photo: Lou Delgado)

The next closest contest is in the 69th Assembly district. Clerk-Recorder Tom Daly holds a comfortable 7,936 vote lead with 40.9% of the votes. In second place is Jose “Joe” Moreno at 4,361 votes with Julio Perez trailing by 889 at 3,472 votes.

The possibility for a change in the 72nd AD are high, given the propensity for Vietnamese voters to turn in their VBM ballots on election day which could benefit Joe Dovinh. In the 69th AD, Julio Perez is holding out for a surge in VBM and Provisional votes driven by the strong ground campaign waged by his campaign and the Orange County Labor Federation’s Dignity PAC.

In other news, the Fullerton Recall campaign has been successful in replacing three members of the city council, Dick Jones, Pat McKinley, and Don Bankhead. They will  be replaced by Travis Kiger, Doug Chaffe, and Greg Sebourn.  So Tony Bushala now has his 3-2 council majority and effectively the key to the city.  But it’s a short sprint to November.  Todd Spitzer and Janet Nguyen creamed their respective opponents in the race for the County BoS seats.

Here is the link to the current results for the Orange County Primary election. The numbers will be updated every business day at 5 p.m. until all votes are counted.

  1 comment for “Primary Election Analysis

  1. Jim Benson
    June 6, 2012 at 9:46 am

    Great job on this post.

    You and the Orange County Breeze are to be commended for not calling these races yet. There are just to many votes left to be counted.

    Board of Education Race in Area 1 may be another to contiune watching. Ken Nguyen had a early lead from the Absentees also.

    This was a very low turnout at the polls, the late absentee totals will be close to equal to the votes already counted.

    Your numbers confirm what I have already stated other places that at least 10,000 to 12,000 votes remain to be counted in the 72nd. Perhaps as high as 16,000 based on your latest numbers above

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