Positive Poll Numbers for Phu Nguyen in 68th Assembly race

Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez introduces Phu Nguyen. Photo; Phu Nguyen for Assembly

FOUNTAIN VALLEY — A recent voter survey has found that the race between Democrat Phu Nguyen and Republican Allan Mansoor to succeed Republican Van Tran in California’s 68th Assembly district is competitive. The 68th Assembly District has traditionally elected Republicans. However, Nguyen’s overwhelming lead among Vietnamese American voter’s puts him in contention in this district because of the sizable number of likely voters are Vietnamese.

Current Standing of the 68th Assembly Race

In the initial question, Phu Nguyen is within the survey’s margin of error of his Republican opponent, Allan Mansoor. Specifically, Phu draws 35 percent of the vote compared to Mansoor’s 39 percent, with the remaining quarter (26%) undecided.

This race is competitive due to Phu’s strength with Vietnamese voters as he leads by a 3-to-1 margin over Mansoor (55% to 19%) with this segment of the electorate.

Considering the fact that more than half of Vietnamese voters are Republican, this poll demonstrates that Phu is able to draw support across party lines within the Vietnamese community. In fact, Phu currently leads Mansoor by similar margins among both non-Republican and Republican Vietnamese voters:

  • Among non-Republican Vietnamese voters, Phu leads Mansoor by a margin of 63% to 16%, with 22% undecided.
  • Among Republican Vietnamese voters, Phu leads Mansoor by a margin of 52% to 21%, with 27% undecided.

The bottom line is that Phu Nguyen’s ability to draw strong Vietnamese support, including Republican Vietnamese voters, puts this district in play for Democrats.

Survey Methodology: From September 26 – September 30, 2010, Tulchin Research conducted a telephone survey among 400 likely November 2010 voters in California’s 68th State Assembly district. The sample included 356 voters district-wide and 44 Republican Vietnamese voters. Interviews were conducted in English and Vietnamese. The margin of error is +/- 5.1% for the district-wide sample.

Phu Nguyen’s campaign has been focused on an aggressive field operation. Phu, and dozens of volunteers are walking door to door contacting voters directly to let them know who he is and what he will do if elected. In addition, Nguyen has spent a significant amount of time focusing on building strong relationships with non-Vietnamese voters.

Apparently the survey also shows that the more voters learn about both candidates the better Nguyen does, moving his percentage of overall support well above the margin of error. This is a good sign for Nguyen who has said that his his strategy is to keep his campaign “focused on the issues, discussing the need for middle class tax relief, state government fiscal discipline, giving funding priority to our students and law enforcement activities, and helping our seniors.”

  4 comments for “Positive Poll Numbers for Phu Nguyen in 68th Assembly race

  1. October 11, 2010 at 12:19 pm

    Let’s take this to a higher level; Jobs & the Economy.

    I went to http://www.google.com and entered “Business friendly state ratings” and found California with the third worst business friendly rating, only New York and New Jersey have lower business friendly ratings.

    Democrats have the majority in the Assembly and State Senate; so why exactly would one want to add to the Democrat’s majority?
    At http://www.votephu.com I read that he is for small businesses and wants to streamline regulations, this is wonderful; the problem is that he’s a Democrat running for Assembly in the wrong state; California is the third worst business friendly state.

    I visited http://www.loretta.org and under “Issues” > Economic Development” I read that Loretta believes that America’s economic collapse is only a “Down Market”. It’s not a “slip of the tongue”, – a “miss-speak”, – rather it’s speaks to her detachment from economic reality.
    Economic reality starts with Congress ramming through Glass-Steagall bankruptcy re-organization legislation. Loretta is unavailable she lives in Disneyland in the Fantasy Kingdom.

    An 11 minute Glass-Steagall video

  2. Northcountystorm
    October 11, 2010 at 12:33 pm

    Mr. Prevatt–Encouraging poll. Thank you for providing it to us. A question: is it your policy to allow people like Mr. Lauten to hijack posts for their linked commentary? If so, is it also your policy to ignore the man and hope he goes back to the table in front of the post office?

    • October 11, 2010 at 1:37 pm

      To both of your questions the answer is yes. My traffic reports show that few if any people click through to his links. He is kind of like the crazy guy yelling at passing cars. 🙂

  3. Gericault
    October 11, 2010 at 2:39 pm


    Nate Silvers poll from 538 has Loretta winning at a 94% probability.

Comments are closed.