FOUNTAIN VALLEY â€” A recent voter survey has found that the race between Democrat Phu Nguyen and Republican Allan Mansoor to succeed Republican Van Tran in Californiaâ€™s 68th Assembly district is competitive. The 68th Assembly District has traditionally elected Republicans. However, Nguyenâ€™s overwhelming lead among Vietnamese American voterâ€™s puts him in contention in this district because of the sizable number of likely voters are Vietnamese.
Current Standing of the 68th Assembly Race
In the initial question, Phu Nguyen is within the surveyâ€™s margin of error of his Republican opponent, Allan Mansoor. Specifically, Phu draws 35 percent of the vote compared to Mansoorâ€™s 39 percent, with the remaining quarter (26%) undecided.
This race is competitive due to Phuâ€™s strength with Vietnamese voters as he leads by a 3-to-1 margin over Mansoor (55% to 19%) with this segment of the electorate.
Considering the fact that more than half of Vietnamese voters are Republican, this poll demonstrates that Phu is able to draw support across party lines within the Vietnamese community. In fact, Phu currently leads Mansoor by similar margins among both non-Republican and Republican Vietnamese voters:
- Among non-Republican Vietnamese voters, Phu leads Mansoor by a margin of 63% to 16%, with 22% undecided.
- Among Republican Vietnamese voters, Phu leads Mansoor by a margin of 52% to 21%, with 27% undecided.
The bottom line is that Phu Nguyenâ€™s ability to draw strong Vietnamese support, including Republican Vietnamese voters, puts this district in play for Democrats.
Survey Methodology: From September 26 â€“ September 30, 2010, Tulchin Research conducted a telephone survey among 400 likely November 2010 voters in Californiaâ€™s 68th State Assembly district. The sample included 356 voters district-wide and 44 Republican Vietnamese voters. Interviews were conducted in English and Vietnamese. The margin of error is +/- 5.1% for the district-wide sample.
Phu Nguyenâ€™s campaign has been focused on an aggressive field operation. Phu, and dozens of volunteers are walking door to door contacting voters directly to let them know who he is and what he will do if elected. In addition, Nguyen has spent a significant amount of time focusing on building strong relationships with non-Vietnamese voters.
Apparently the surveyÂ alsoÂ shows that the more voters learn about both candidates the better Nguyen does, moving his percentage of overall support well above the margin of error. This is a good sign for Nguyen whoÂ has said that his his strategy is to keep hisÂ campaign â€œfocused on the issues, discussing the need for middle class tax relief, state government fiscal discipline, giving funding priority to our students and law enforcement activities, and helping our seniors.â€