Message to Lucille- You Feeling Lucky?

So Lucille Kring has decided to forego either a second consecutive term on the Anaheim City Council or a run for Anaheim Mayor in order to pursue a quixotic run against Lou Correa for State Senate.  My question to Lucille is are you feeling lucky, because the odds are against you in so many ways, it’s not even funny. If Curt Pringle was any friend of yours, he would have told you not to do it. That is not very nice of him. What kind of a friend encourages you to be a sacrificial lamb. So let’s break down just how ugly of a loss this is going to be.

Already other top tier challengers have taken a pass at this race, even with the offer of hundreds of thousands of dollars. The fact that it took this long for Senate Republicans to woo a candidate is a testament to the popularity of Correa, despite what some imaginary poll that no one ever sees says. So first lets take a look at the registration numbers.

Since Correa was elected in 2006, there has been a large swing in voter registration in favor of the Democrats. The numbers at close of registration were:

2006 G D-116179 40.88 R-108844 38.3 I-48659 17.12 284212                                                                

During his first term, that has since changed to the following:

Feb. 16 2010 D-138635 44.22 R-101931 32.51 I-61254 19.53 313574

Democrats have increased their registration edge by more than 10 points. I don’t see the Republicans making up ground this year and by the way, by giving us an opponent, Kring give the Senate Dems an excuse to increase voter registration in this area. Thanks Lucille. The change in registration was the result of a major citizenship drive by Correa(and those folks are going to remember the man who helped them become US Citizens) and general unpopularity of the Republican, who despite Democrats having a downturn, the GOP continues to remain unpopular.

Latinos also make up the largest voting bloc of voters in pure NUMBERS, not turnout percentage. They were 35% of the voters in the 2006 election and will likely be close to 40% of the voters in the 2010 election. Sure Vietnamese turnout in greater numbers, but remember 40% of 100,000 is still greater than 60% of 50,000.  Despite those numbers, Correa has made inroads in both communities and Kring may get a sizable number of Vietnamese, but Correa is likely going to get upwards of 80% of Latino vote due to his unwavering support for immigrants, education and fighting for the working class. This includes a sizable area of Anaheim where Lucille has done poorly in the past anyways. Her strength was in the hills and guess what, THEY CAN’T VOTE FOR HER.

She is likely going to get support from teabaggers, who are known for their anti-Latino rhetoric. Does she go after the largest voting bloc in the district, or does she make a bunch of teabaggers happy, even though half of them don’t even live in the district. Most of these Republicans are caught between a rock and a hard place.

Next let’s talk about money. It’s going to take money for Kring to take out an entrenched Democratic incumbent in a Democratic leaning district. So where is she going to get her money. The Senate Republicans definitely don’t have too much of it. Even so, they already have a full plate in 2010. They have to play defense in the 12th(Denham) and 15th should Maldonado get confirmed. They supposedly also want to go after the 16th(Florez-D) as well. That is a lot of places to spread the money around already. So I can’t imagine Kring getting a whole lot there.

I guess Kring can count on those pro-business organizations to give her money. Oh what’s that, they have already endorsed Lou Correa. To quote Homer Simpson, “D’OH!” Orange County Business Council has endorsed him and he has been praised for his bi-partisan approach to trying to get us out of this recession and get people back to work. Cal Chamber is likely going to endorse Correa, so there goes that money and I.E. support for Kring.

The most telling reason she was wooed actually come in the post where Matt Cunningham crows about her entry into the race. The line “A collateral winner here is former Anaheim Councilman Tom Tait, who is running for mayor and has piled up a mass of endorsements and campaign dollars. This obviates an election battle with Kring and presumably clears a path to the mayorship for Tait”, says it all. Doesn’t Kring get it, this wasn’t about taking out Correa at all, this was about clearing the field for Tait to be coronated Mayor. Lucille Kring, YOU GOT BAMBOOZLED. It isn’t too late Kring. You will lose to Correa, you may have a shot against Tait. Kenny Rogers had some words of wisdom in the song “The Gambler.” I advise you listen to them. Because this is the time when you need to walk away and know when to run.

  5 comments for “Message to Lucille- You Feeling Lucky?

  1. Corby
    March 2, 2010 at 6:13 pm

    So Clod, you neglected to figure her chance against Correa the LIAR…the guy who PROMISED he wouldn’t raise taxes, and DID. How much money has the District ponied up because Lou LIED?

  2. March 2, 2010 at 6:34 pm

    I totally agree with you-Curt is not friend to Lucille, and she is certainly not friendly to him. I have no doubt that the Machine put her up to this to get her out of the way for Tom’s annointing. If Lucille thought for a second that Curt was helping her she is dumber than even I anticipated. That said, do not count her out. Nobody can walk precincts like Lucille, if you could see her at the end of that race to regain her Council seat, she looked like she needed hospitalization, she exhausted herself that completely, but she took it back from incumbent (and Pringle buddy) Chavez! She is going to put up one Helluva fight. Correa used to have solid bipartisan support here, until the broke his tax pledge, he lost me big there. He also recently pushed an ill conceived bill to waive CEQA compliance for specific big budget projects (guess who would pick and choose which developers did not have to comply with CEQA) and that cost him big last week with the tree huggers, anti-HSR crowd, and the historic preservation folk, all of whom used to be behind him. Throw in a serious anti-incumbent mindset, and he may not have the edge you think he does. I would hate to handicap this race. I am certainly not putting any dead Presidents on the outcome.

  3. Mathew Cunningham
    March 2, 2010 at 8:28 pm

    Urging Lucille to drop out of the race? Why, if you think she’s going to get clobbered?

  4. Claudio Gallegos
    March 3, 2010 at 12:20 pm

    Same question goes to Pringle and the Anaheim inner circle. If Tait was such a shoo in, why try and talk her out of that race. Fact is, I have heard she is a nice person and would hate to see her put through the ringer like this. I am only trying to help her see the light and go for a race she could win, like Mayor of Anaheim.

  5. March 3, 2010 at 12:39 pm

    I would put the same question to Curt and company, is he afraid his boy cannot win on his own? Kind of like getting a job for my kid because I do not think he can do it on his own, how much confidence does that show in your candidate that you do not want him to run a real race? If Pringle gamed that race he just insulted Tait’s ability, but that is between the two of them. You heard wrong about Lucille, she is not very nice, she is one mean ball of a political animal, who flip flops with whomever might give her money or favors. She is also prone to badmouthing others without backing it up with facts, surprising for someone with a law degree. But that same steely determination is going to help her take out Correa if that is what she wants to do. She has to win a race somewhere, her failing wine bar is not going to support her into old age. I assume Correa’s seat pays better than the part-time pay of Anaheim Mayor?

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