Katherine Smith For Congress, What Happens Now

If you believe the hype in the media, the word is that 2010 is going to be a harsh year for Democrats. For Republicans in Orange County, they believed it to be the perfect opportunity to take out the hated Loretta Sanchez. They recruited Assemblyman Van Tran to be the candidate and since that time, it has blown up in their faces. Now the final death knell to his campaign may have arrived in the form of AUHSD Boardmember Katherine Smith. It is now confirmed that Katherine Smith has taken the steps to run for Congress in the 47th District, which would make her the third Republican in the race, and as long as Quang Pham stays in, she likely becomes the front runner for the GOP nomination.

Here is the analysis of how this race breaks down. With another Vietnamese Republican in the race, it will be very difficult for Van Tran to win. Even if Quang Pham were to drop out, Van would face a tough fight against Smith. Lets look at the facts. Katherine Smith is a long time school board member who is beloved by conservative Republicans in Anaheim, which contains the largest single voting bloc of Republicans in the district. She has some big name I.D. that cannot be beat. Katherine Smith will also appeal to Republican voters throughout the 47th CD who are looking for any excuse in the world to not have to vote for a minority candidate, and lets face yet, yes there are  a few Republican voters who think like that.

So now what happens? To be honest, Katherine Smith may easily jump to the front of the pack in the race for the GOP nomination, but is clearly the easiest candidate for Loretta Sanchez to beat. Katherine Smith has a history of being close allies with Minuteman Harald Martin and was a leader in the effort to bill Mexico for having students in the district of Mexican ancestry. This will not go over well considering Latinos are still 37% of the electorate in the 47th District in an off year election. That’s a large number of people to have alienated going into a general election.

Of course Van Tran and Quang Pham have done their part to damage themselves. Either way you look at it, the Republican effort to take out Loretta Sanchez is melting down faster than Andy Quach’s dashboard after the crash. I guess Van Tran was asleep at the wheel when it came time to clear the field for him. Once again, Loretta’s personal bruja is carrying her to victory.  Imagine, the Republican dream candidate taken out in the primary, no wonder Matt Cunningham and co. at Red County haven’t talked about this latest development yet. I wouldn’t want to talk about it either if my party was facing a similar prospect. But we aren’t and Loretta will once again win with 60% of the vote no matter who the opponent is.

  9 comments for “Katherine Smith For Congress, What Happens Now

  1. Mathew Cunningham
    January 15, 2010 at 3:57 pm

    “Imagine, the Republican dream candidate taken out in the primary, no wonder Matt Cunningham and co. at Red County haven’t talked about this latest development yet.”

    Dude, give me a chance! I’m only now shaking off the “I don’t want to blog during the holidays” ennui, and haven’t gotten around to blogging about Katharine Smith yet.

    For now, suffice it to say: you are wrong!

  2. junior
    January 15, 2010 at 4:05 pm

    Wrong again Claudio –

    “For Republicans in Orange County, they believed it to be the perfect opportunity to take out the hated Loretta Sanchez.”

    Contrary to the opinions of some dems, Republicans do not hate Loretta Sanchez. Hate is such a strong and ugly word Claudio. Let’s tone down the rhetoric, on both sides, and we will all be taken more seriously.

    No, we do not hate Loretta – strongly disapprove of her policies YES. Hate her – no.

  3. Mathew Cunningham
    January 15, 2010 at 4:22 pm

    True dat, junior.

    I just think she’s ridiculous and two-faced.

  4. junior
    January 15, 2010 at 5:46 pm

    Katherine Smith For Congress, What Happens Now?

    Answer: Van Tran whips them all in the primary and then takes on an Obamacare – Pelosi damaged Loretta.

  5. January 15, 2010 at 6:31 pm

    And Loretta wins anyway. :)

    • January 16, 2010 at 3:05 am

      And Loretta utterly destroys them anyway!

  6. just...asking
    January 16, 2010 at 3:13 pm

    Smith doesn’t have a chance! Unlike school board races were once your elected it is a free ride to re-elections, congressional seats require engaged and engaging candidates. Smith is neither! She has a great resume until you actually see her in action. Check out an AUHSD board meeting and you too will quickly remove her from serious consideration.

    That said, she can siphon off votes from Tran in the primary and make the reep side of the primary very interesting. She won’t be around in November to pull votes from Loretta.

    What is Smith thinking getting into this race? …just asking?

  7. OCViet
    January 24, 2010 at 4:01 pm

    Even though Van Tran is Vietnamese, Loretta Sanchez has a better chance of carrying the Vietnamese-American voting block because she has a track record of fighting for human rights in Vietnam, which is a dear cause in the community here. She’s been an ardent supporter for human rights and has been banned from entering Vietnam! The Vietnamese here aren’t that stirred-up about domestic issues such as taxes and health care. They care about what’s going on in Vietnam, since there are lots of relatives still overseas. So, Van Tran can play the “I’m against ObamaCare” card, but it probably won’t be able to rally the Viet community to vote for him.

  8. junior
    January 24, 2010 at 5:27 pm

    OC Viet,

    What has Loretta really done for the Viet community, besides “care” and pander?

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