If you believe the hype in the media, the word is that 2010 is going to be a harsh year for Democrats. For Republicans in Orange County, they believed it to be the perfect opportunity to take out the hated Loretta Sanchez. They recruited Assemblyman Van Tran to be the candidate and since that time, it has blown up in their faces. Now the final death knell to his campaign may have arrived in the form of AUHSD Boardmember Katherine Smith. It is now confirmedÂ that Katherine Smith has taken the steps to run for Congress in the 47th District, which would make her the third Republican in the race, and as long as Quang Pham stays in, she likely becomes the front runner for the GOP nomination.
Here is the analysis of how this race breaks down. With another Vietnamese Republican in the race, it will be very difficult for Van Tran to win. Even if Quang Pham were to drop out, Van would face a tough fight against Smith. Lets look at the facts. Katherine Smith is a long time school board member who is beloved by conservative Republicans in Anaheim, which contains the largest single voting bloc of Republicans in the district. She has some big name I.D. that cannot be beat. Katherine Smith will also appeal to Republican voters throughout the 47th CD who are looking for any excuse in the world to not have to vote for a minority candidate, and lets face yet, yes there areÂ a few Republican voters who think like that.
So now what happens? To be honest, Katherine Smith may easily jump to the front of the pack in the race for the GOP nomination, but is clearly the easiest candidate for Loretta Sanchez to beat. Katherine Smith has a history of being close allies with Minuteman Harald Martin and was a leader in the effort to bill Mexico for having students in the district of Mexican ancestry. This will not go over well considering Latinos are still 37% of the electorate in the 47th District in an off year election. That’s a large number of people to have alienated going into a general election.
Of course Van Tran and Quang Pham have done their part to damage themselves. Either way you look at it, the Republican effort to take out Loretta Sanchez is melting down faster than Andy Quach’s dashboard after the crash. I guess Van Tran was asleep at the wheel when it came time to clear the field for him. Once again, Loretta’s personal bruja is carrying her to victory.Â Imagine, the Republican dream candidate taken out in the primary, no wonder Matt Cunningham and co. at Red CountyÂ haven’t talked about this latest development yet. I wouldn’t want to talk about it either if my party was facing a similar prospect. But we aren’t and Loretta will once again win with 60% of the vote no matter who the opponent is.