Congressional District Breakdown of OC Presidential Vote

NOW UPDATED WITH CA-44 RESULTS!

You can thank californianintexas at Swing State Project for this! She’s working hard to get us the Presidential Vote Tallies by Congressional District. And now, we have all the OC CD info.

But anyways, here’s how each of the OC districts (save the 44th) voted for President. To make things easier, I made a note on which Congresscritter is in office in each of the Congressional Districts. So without any further adieu, here are the numbers we’ve been waiting for. 

CA-40 (Royce-R):

2008 Vote-
Obama (D) 114,025
McCain (R) 125,066
Others 5,456

Percentages (D/R)-
2008: Obama 46.6/McCain 51.1
2004: Kerry 38.4/Bush 60.2
2000: Gore 40.3/Bush 55.7
 

CA-42 (Miller-R):

2008 Vote-
Obama (D)128,474
McCain (R) 152,256
Others 5,529

Percentages (D/R)-
2008: Obama 44.9/McCain 53.2
2004: Kerry 36.9/Bush 62.0
2000: Gore 38.5/Bush 58.3

CA-44 (Calvert-R):

2008 Vote-
Obama (D) 133,535
McCain (R) 131,003
Others 5,169

Percentages (D/R)-
2008: Obama 49.5/McCain 48.6
2004: Kerry 39.9/Bush 59.0
2000: Gore 43.5/Bush 52.7

CA-46 (Rohrabacher-R):

Obama (D) 145,393
McCain (R) 150,937
Others 6,921

Percentages (D/R)-
2008: Obama 47.9/McCain 49.8
2004: Kerry 41.6/Bush 56.9
2000: Gore 41.2/Bush 54.1

CA-47 (Sanchez-D):

2008 Vote-
Obama (D) 77,144
McCain (R) 48,461
Others 2,672

Percentages (D/R)-
2008: Obama 60.1/McCain 37.8
2004: Kerry 48.6/Bush 50.0
2000: Gore 55.6/Bush 40.9

CA-48 (Campbell-R):

2008 Vote-
Obama (D) 163,063
McCain (R) 160,584
Others 7,091

Percentages (D/R)-
2008: Obama 49.3/McCain 48.6
2004: Kerry 40.4/Bush 58.3
2000: Gore 39.1/Bush 57.2

As expected, the 40th & 42nd Districts went to McCain, though by narrower margins than expected. And as expected, Obama won the 47th District, though by a somewhat wider margin than I expected. So for the most part, the inland districts held few surprises.

However, the coastal districts did surprise me! While Obama came quite close in the 46th, it seems like he underperformed here compared to the other OC districts. Meanwhile in a HUGE shocker, Obama won in the 48th! I don’t remember the last time this district went blue on the federal level, so this is a major development! Now the 48th has been trending our way for a while, but I didn’t expect it to flip this soon.

So what do the district results tell us? Most likely, Loretta Sanchez can breathe a little more easily in the 47th. And honestly, Gary Miller still holds quite the red district in the 42nd. But at this point, Ed Royce & Dana Rohrabacher (40th & 46th, respectively) must be concerned about the fast fading red shades in their districts. And if the 48th is now starting to vote for Democrats, then John Campbell may need to rethink his reelection strategy for 2010.

And hopefully, this will remind all of us here of just how many opportunities Democrats actually have in OC. ;-)

  4 comments for “Congressional District Breakdown of OC Presidential Vote

  1. Sara (californianintexas)
    December 20, 2008 at 5:42 pm

    Hi! I just found the Riverside data and finished CA-44. Obama won that district with 49.5%. Better watch out, Calvert!

  2. Mr. Smith
    December 20, 2008 at 10:51 pm

    I think you missed some statistical realities Andrew. The trends do not show what you are suggesting at the local elected office level. Further, Debbie Cook spent a considerable amount of money and effort, yet still fell short. I suspect much of the voting percentages reflect the quality of McCain as a candidate and not the district. I think a little more analysis and a lot less youthful enthusiasm will be required to really win the seat.

  3. JimmiD
    December 21, 2008 at 12:54 am

    What about the 44th? You don’t have any analysis for it. Seems to me that, considering Hedrick’s showing, we ought to be paying some attention there.

  4. Mr. Smith
    December 21, 2008 at 7:21 am

    The problem is that these numbers reflect a transition on only this election. Bush won heartily in 2004. A trend would be the continued movement in that direction. That has still to be proven. Weave into that the reelection of local city, county and State positions. That kind of analysis requires some real thought and not wishful thinking. Put your money, effort, and enthusiasm to good work in a productive manner. The worst thing in elections is not being realistic from the start.

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