Bellwether

RBC member and Clinton supporter Garry Shay, former Chair of the Los Angeles Democratic Party and Chair of the CDP’s Rules Committee, has an email announcement list to which I subscribe. Apparently back from his weekend trip to the RBC meeting in DC, this morning Garry sent four emails to his list.

Two of the emails had to do with the Presidential race:

Vilsack says it’s over

Clinton camp converging on New York Tuesday, and shedding staff

I may not be the smartest person in the world, but I know how to spell “bellwether” and I know what it means when Garry speaks.

  26 comments for “Bellwether

  1. The Message
    June 2, 2008 at 1:48 pm

    Add this to the fact that PA Governor Ed Rendell stated that the 4 delegates that Clinton is mad about in Michigan is not worth a floor fight at the convention and I think the message is loud and clear. It is over, Obama is our nominee, its time to take back the White House.

    Unless NCS and Andrew Davey feel John McCain will make a great President?

  2. Heather Pritchard
    June 2, 2008 at 2:07 pm

    As much as I’ve disagreed with both Andrew and NCS, I’ve never doubted their support for the party and believe they would both happily vote for the nominee in November over John McSame.

  3. June 2, 2008 at 2:07 pm

    “The Message”-

    What message? The one that Puerto Rico’s voters sent yesterday? Or the one that Montana & South Dakota voters will send tomorrow? Or the one already sent by the over 17 million people that have voted for Hillary Clinton… Which happens to be more than for anyone else running for the Democratic nomination? It ain’t over until the lady in the pantsuit says it’s over. And until I hear directly from her, I don’t intend to make any decisions based on rumors.

    Heather-

    Thank you. Now may I please just see who the nominee will be? :-)

  4. Heather Pritchard
    June 2, 2008 at 2:13 pm

    I chose my words carefully Andrew and purposely left Obama out of it, so yes, I’m willing to wait until tomorrow night.

  5. June 2, 2008 at 2:19 pm

    Heather-

    Actually, you’re OK. I just had to say it because I’ve experienced this far too often. I’m told that I need to give him because Hillary is about to lose… Then she wins and the race goes on. I’ve already heard from people with close connections to the campaign, and they’re seriously doubting the cedibility of these media reports. I just want to wait and see who actually wins the nomination before I settle into “general election” mode.

    That’s all.

  6. anon
    June 2, 2008 at 2:24 pm

    Andrew, I hate to remind you of this “inconvenient truth”, but it’s delegate totals that determine the nominee, not the popular vote count.

  7. The Message
    June 2, 2008 at 2:25 pm

    I love the spin you all use. Lets face it, the vast majority of that Michigan vote for Uncommitted was for Obama, which would put him ahead of Hillary. Plus was it not you who said in a previous thread that you don’t recognize votes from outside the USA, only votes from within the USA when you discounted votes from the Democrats Abroad race? Suddenly they do count when Hillary wins a contest from outside the USA proper and wins it big.

    That is what has bothered me most about Hillary and her shills, their willingness to change talking points and popular vote criteria ONLY when it benefits her. Montana and South Dakota will send a message Andrew, that Obama is it. Stop the divisiveness. These talking points only help John MCCain.

  8. June 2, 2008 at 2:50 pm

    In Milbank, SD today, Bill Clinton said, “I want to say also, that this may be the last day I’m ever involved in a campaign of this kind” Apparently he went further and added this, “I thought I was out of politics, ’til Hillary decided to run [...] But it has been, one of the greatest honors of my life to go around and campaign for her for president. ”

    So it appears that it’s nearly over — but for the shouting.

    It’s time to move on and focus on healing the party (and the nation), defeating McCain, promoting down-ticket races, registering more voters, and ultimately celebrating huge Democratic victories in November.

    H/T to First Read by way of Wonkette.

  9. June 2, 2008 at 3:11 pm

    “The Message”-

    Stop it. Really. Are you just trying to make me angry? If so, you’re maling that happen. However, I’d prefer to show some restraint so that I don’t p*** all over Gila’s thread.

    You simply can’t shout at people and demand that they do as you say. I’ve already said that I’m not giving up on anything until I hear directly from Hillary. And unless you want to lose for your candidate whatever goodwill he may gain from me, I suggest you stop stirring up s*** here.

    If you want “unity”, start practicing it. If you want Hillary Clinton Democrats to feel good about Barack Obama if he’s the nominee, stop attacking Hillary and stop calling us names. If you want the “unity” you’re talking about now, you need to practice what you preach.

  10. It's Over
    June 2, 2008 at 6:04 pm

    It’s Over, you know it I know it HRC knows it cause it’s over, because Obama won and HRC lost. No hard feelings HRC is great but Obama won and that’s it. Done It’s Over Done It’s over

    Get on the Bus Get on Bus before it leaves the station cause it’s over

    Did I mention it’s over?

  11. It's Over
    June 2, 2008 at 6:05 pm

    Andrew quit blocking me I thought Dems believe in free speech oh by the way it’s over

  12. June 2, 2008 at 6:22 pm

    It’s Over: you’re not blocked. Our comments are moderated and yours go into moderation and have to be approved by someone before they’re posted. We generally approve comments pretty quickly.

  13. Northcountystorm
    June 2, 2008 at 9:20 pm

    Andrew–well said. Some people have been wanting to bury Clinton alive since Iowa. They and some of the talking media heads have wanted this campaign to end months ago. Their sense of entitlement has been been something else indeed. I’m with you, let’s wait until we hear from Hillary . Once more into the breech!

    As we round up the primary season with a couple of states that, after losing 8 of the last 12 primaries, Obama should win, the words of Senator John Tester of Montana remind us of how beneficial this nomination fight has been:

    “What’s happened over the past couple of weeks in Montana and
    South Dakota has been nothing short of amazing with Senator Obama and Senator Clinton crisscrossing both of those states and giving us the kind of exposure to national candidates like we’ve literally never seen before.”

  14. Claudio Gallegos
    June 2, 2008 at 11:35 pm

    Andrew,

    Easy there. The “Message” made a valid point based on comments you wrote in a previous post. You stated that Dems Abroad and terrotorial races should not count and then backtrack when Clinton wins big in Puerto Rico. That has been one issue that bothers me, is Hillary’s willingness to change the way the national popular vote is tabulated to suit her, even to the point of discounting all of the caucuses. Gee I thought she believed every American deserved to have their vote counted. I personally do not like the caucus system, but that is the sanctioned contest in 13 states,11 of them which went for Obama. Speaking of which, in NCS’s comments, I love how he uses the “Hillary has won 8 out of the last 12 primaries” neglecting the fact that in between those primaries, WYOMING held a caucus which Obama won. What’s wrong NCS, the people of WYOMING, A US STATE, don’t deserve to have their vote counted?

    To “The Message”, no need to call Andrew a shill, he is a good kid. The name calling was unecessary, it sullied an otherwise good comment.

    Andrew, you should answer Message’s assertions. Other than the shill quote, they bring up valid points regarding your comments and the Hillary camp. The Obama camp should not have to suck up to Hillary supporter in order for them to come on over. I know the last thing you want to see is a McCain Presidency, but that attitude you presented to the Message is exactly what will cause McCain to be elected. Hillary and her camp wanting the Obama camp to jump through a bunch of hoops to get their support is counterproductive to unification of our party. I do hope after Montana and South Dakota have their say that she gracefully exits and proudly backs Barack Obama.

    She should be honored, no woman has ever made it this far in a presidential race, shehas nothing to be ashamed about.

  15. THe Message
    June 3, 2008 at 11:23 am

    “Andrew Davey, on May 14th, 2008 at 11:50 am Said:
    Eric-

    Believe it or not, there are 50 states in the US. Not 48, not 57… 50.”

    Your words, you stated Puerto Rico should not count, there are only 50 states. So why the anger issues Andrew. Your words, not mine. Suddenly you backtrack and claim Puerto Rico should count, even though it is not one of the 50 STATES. Listen buddy, its time to get on board the Obama express. As a good Democrat you should be ready to jump on board without asking us Obamaites to jump through any hoops. That is awfully shallow of you to claim you will hold my words against Barack Obama, the guy doesn’t even know I exist. You want good will, get on board. Obama is only 35 delegates away. He will cross the threshold tonight, it is time, lets defeat McCain. That is unless he is your second choice after Hillary.

  16. June 3, 2008 at 11:57 am

    “Message”-

    Again, stop it. You’re not winning me over with your crap. If you want to help your candidate, stop stirring up s*** here.

    Oh yes, and maybe you should have said something about 50 states back then when Obama folks were throwing in my face wins in the Virgin Islands and Guam. You can’t have it both ways.

    Personally, I think it’s unfair to these territories that they only participate in primaries while being excluded in general elections. That’s why I think the Democratic Party should include in its platform a commitment to ensuring that these territories can vote in the general election if we intend to continue including them in primaries. But since the rules are the way they are, why can’t I bring up Puerto Rico if you bring up the Virgin Islands & Guam?

    And again, stop with the attitude. It still ain’t over until the lady in the pantsuit says its over. Whatever she decides, I’ll support her decision. And in the mean time, start practicing what you preach. If you want “unity”, stop sowing division by trashing Hillary supporters here.

  17. THe Message
    June 3, 2008 at 1:29 pm

    I challenge you to find my comment where I brought up the Virgin Islands and Guam. Oh thats right, I never did. Above is a comment YOU MADE. Why do you get so upset, those were your words. Personally, with only 12 delegates between them, I was much more interested in matchups in the US of A with much more delegates. I don’t recall ever throwing Guam or Virgin Islands in your face. In fact the two times I ever met you, I don’t recall ever mentioning Guam or Virgin Islands.

    Who is being the spoiled sport here. Most media outlets and even Clinton supporters are now declaring Obama the nominee. You started out an Obamaite. Giovanni and company are willing to forgive your defection, just stop being a spoiled sport. I am not trashing you Hillary supporters, just trying to get the message through, its over, time to get on the bus. The longer you wait, the chances go up that McCain will win. Stop helping McCain, support Obama.

  18. June 3, 2008 at 1:35 pm

    Bus is all warmed up, checked & double-checked, tires and gas tank filled up to the brim, spark plugs all firing correctly, oil changed, ready to go! Looks like it may be scheduled for departure tomorrow. It’ll take a lot of speeding to catch up with it after that! (If you’re not planning to hitch a ride on the Straight Talk Express, chugging along on lobbyist diesel right behind it.)

  19. THe Message
    June 3, 2008 at 1:48 pm

    Andrew,

    Read em and weep!

    http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/03/election.democrats/index.html

    Looks like the lady in the pants suit is getting on board the Obama Express. Better get on, we don’t want you falling off when we are going full speed ahead!

  20. June 3, 2008 at 2:24 pm

    “Message”-

    Here’s a tip for you: Stop being a concern troll.

    You act like I’m some “traitor” to your cause that should be begging you for forgiveness. Sorry, but that won’t happen. You already know where I stand on (NOT) supporting Grampa McCrazy this fall. I’d suggest you start treating Hillary Clinton Democrats here more gracefully while we wait to see who the nominee will be.

    Yes, pretty soon we’ll all have to be a nice, big Democratic family again to win. But until the field’s actually been reduced to one candidate, you can’t simply command people to get on your “bus”. So if you want to help your candidate, stop with the nasty attitude.

    And until you drop the nastiness, consider this the last time I ever respond to your comments here.

  21. THe Message
    June 3, 2008 at 2:51 pm

    It doesn’t help when you won’t post my messages. You want good will, stop silencing Obama supporters. Talk about nastiness. I will have to contact Art Pedroza so he can expose the censoring by Andrew the Hillaryite. I had two comments directing you to a CNN article and you will not post it. How communistic of the Hillary camp.

  22. Obama Mama
    June 3, 2008 at 4:11 pm

    Andrew,

    No need to beg for forgiveness. Simply stop being an obstuctionist, back the rightful Democratic nominee and lets get on to victory. We will not even ask you to apologize for supporting Hillary just because you saw poll numbers that showed Obama tanking(we all know that was the real reason). Obama is a forgiving man. Giovanni and Elisa and all the original Obama OC crowd are willing to let bygones be bygones. Its time Andrew, join us or join McCain, the choice is yours.

  23. Northcountystorm
    June 3, 2008 at 4:24 pm

    TM— You may have missed this in school but Andrew is entitled to argue in the alternative. His basic belief is that you should count 50 states plus the D.C., the same ones that count in the electoral college in November. But because the Obama campaign and many of its supporters trumpeted territorial victories then Andrew is entitled to turn it back on them with Puerto Rico. Since you seemed obsessed with getting Andrew over to Obama you qualify as a “you” as in Obama supporter. If there is a comment that you made documenting your opposition to counting delegate votes in territories that don’t have electoral votes(and making Americans Abroad vote absentee from their home states) than link it. I’m sure Andrew will apologize.Otherwise you’re just carping. And speaking of carping, as has been explained to you but you can’t seem to understand Andrew is not censoring your babble. He is not moderating your babble. If anyone is moderating your babble its likely an Obama supporter. I’m sure the LOC folks are shaking in their booties about you running off to tattle to Art.

    Claudio– You miss my point. I said primaries, not election contests. Primaries are the real thing and replicate the type of voting we will go thru in November. Caucuses count for delegates according to our rules and while I share your dislike for the caucus system I am not disputing their delegate votes count for the nomination. So yes, I agree Wyonming deserves to have its vote counted but I am not going to put it into the same category as a primary. Caucuses are hardly representative (with the possible exception of Iowa)of the electorate of those states and draw miniscual turnout(Wyoming’s Democratic turnout of 14.6%(actually good for a caucus) compared to California’s 74.3% Democratic turnout for example.)

    As for calculating what is the popular vote, I agree with you that where there is an official caucus total of participants than they should be counted when tabulating popular vote. The only problem is that a few of the states(Iowa, Nevada, Maine and Washington)do not have official figures so speculating on what those state totals would be is not too different than the voodoo vote projections the Mighigan Democratic Party came up with to steal 4 Clinton delegates and award them to Obama.
    Let’s see how it ends up tonight.

    Vern–Sorry but I prefer the train and my train leaves Denver on August 27 at approximately 7pm. And I’ll take the Tillie train to Denver rather than your Farnsworth bus or train. I’m thinking you folks will blow a head gasket on your way to Denver after stocking up in the Napa Valley.

    But thanks for theoffer.

  24. June 3, 2008 at 4:28 pm

    “Obama Mama”-

    Give me a break. There is no “rightful Democratic nominee” until the party settles on one. And no, poll numbers had NOTHING to do with my decision on who I would support. If you don’t know what happened last fall, then just say that and don’t assume things. I can probably “let bygones be bygones” if the Obama people here would stop calling Hillary supporters names, stop trashing our candidate, and start practicing the “unity” you preach to us.

    I hate having to repeat myself, but I can’t commit to the nominee until I know who the nominee will be. And until there’s a nominee, I’m not obstructing anything.

  25. June 3, 2008 at 4:32 pm

    NCS-

    Haha. Thank you. I’m glad at least two people in this thread understand what I’m saying. :-)

  26. June 3, 2008 at 5:24 pm

    Why no story today here on the national race, Obama closing in on clinching, etc? It’s been all over everywhere else all day.

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