Don’t Count Hillary Out Just Yet

I find it funny how so many in the pundit class are ready to dance on Hillary Clinton’s political grave. Despite the Gallup poll showing the race tied and Hillary remaining quite competitve in the states about to vote on March 4, the professional media insiders want us to believe it’s all over now. But is it?

I don’t think so. Not when Hillary had her best debate performance possibly ever. Not when Rasmussen still shows a close primary race and Hillary with a good shot of beating McCain. Not when we have yet to see the results out of Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island, and Vermont on March 4.

So please, can we stop trying to declare the race “over” right now? The fact is that we don’t know who will be the nominee yet, and whichever Democrat wins will be able to beat McCain. I’m starting to feel the same way I did just after the Iowa Caucus. Maybe that should give me reason to keep looking for another New Hampshire-esque “comeback” to send the media pundits into another coma. 😉

  48 comments for “Don’t Count Hillary Out Just Yet

  1. Mike Meyer
    February 27, 2008 at 7:15 am

    The Obama campaign always has known that this might prove to be the high water mark of the campaign. They have had to make it, “Hillary, it’s over,” 24/7, because the argument conceivably will never be plausible again.

    Anyone who thinks that Clintons quit just because they have had reverses obviously was not paying attention (or old enough to pay attention) in the 1990s.

  2. demmother
    February 27, 2008 at 7:31 am

    I agree. This one won’t be over til it’s over. Next Tues may (or may not) be definitive. The pundits have been wrong every time.

  3. February 27, 2008 at 7:43 am

    My issue is this, Clinton used SNL as evidence to support a media bias against her. To me, that is not credible evidence, that’s comedy. Especially since I supported a candidate that truly was sidelined by the media.

    Clinton had huge advantages coming into this and she just did not run a great campaign. She overspent and took many things for granted. Just two weeks ago, I would have said, no, don’t count her out. But right now, I think with her comparing Obama to Bush she’s starting to hurt the party in order to win.

    One of the reasons I was proud of Edwards was how he bowed out with grace and dignity. Clinton will go on to have a great Senate career and she’s an amazing politician, but right now I think she’s hurting the party. We need to focus on taking McCain down and comparing him to Bush, not Obama.

  4. Andrew Davey
    February 27, 2008 at 7:44 am


    Good point. This race ain’t over ’til it’s over. Let’s see what the picture looks like on March 5.


    Also a good point. I remember one GOP strategist out this way say something that we should all remember: “Never underestimate a Clinton.” Hillary may be down right now, but she’s FAR from out. So far, things look pretty good for March 4… If Hill wins 3 out of the 4 (Texas, Ohio, and Rhode Island) states coming up, she’ll be just fine. 🙂


    How is Hillary “hurting the party”? I haven’t seen her trash Obama or “compare him to Bush” necessarily. She’s just pointing out REAL differences. With the race this close and so many states not even voting yet, I think it’s a mistake to just tell her to drop out or else. McCain may have sewn up the GOP nomination, but Obama hasn’t on our side. There are still many unanswered questions about him, and I think whichever one of them becomes our nominee would benefit from a little more scrutiny before we all unite to take on McCain.

  5. February 27, 2008 at 8:01 am

    emocratic presidential contender Hillary Clinton today sought to draw parallels to President Bush and her current rival, Barack Obama, saying Bush was an untested commodity as a Republican candidate for the White House who promised voters change and “the American people got shafted.”

    “So, fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me,” Clinton, facing a difficult task in trying to stall Obama’s momentum, told a crowd at Cincinnati State Technical and Community College this morning as she tried to woo voters in a March 4 primary that is critical to the fate of her candidacy.

    Andrew, yes she did! I’m not telling her to drop out, I can’t do that, but I’m starting to see desperation by her campaign and it is troublesome to me. I also understand the “unanswered” questions about Obama, but for me, I think it’s time to get behind a nominee, we’ve made this mistake in the past. I hate to say it, but I think Clinton will lose badly on the 4th.

  6. February 27, 2008 at 8:31 am

    Personally, i would like to see the Hillary-Obama slugfest go on as long as possible.

    Fight on, Hillary!

  7. February 27, 2008 at 8:47 am

    Listen, I’m not a huge fan of polls, especially this year, but the trends away from Clinton are clear. The fact is that she needs big wins over Obama in both Ohio and Texas, and that will be tough. Texas primacaucus system (which got me to the Texas state convention in 2000) and the allocation of delegates favors a split in delegates in the elections, and it will be hard for Senator Clinton to win in the caucus portion. My family and friends in Texas tell me that there is strong movement towards Obama in Texas, as well.

    But, no, the primary is not over. Bill Clinton has said that Texas and Ohio would be the Clinton campaign’s firewall, so, let’s see what happens. I just hope that, either way, we can have a clean exit from the primary to allow our eventual nominee, whomever he or she may be, to be going in with a full head of steam against Mr. Third Term.

  8. Mike Meyer
    February 27, 2008 at 8:58 am

    Obama is causing Hillary problems in the GE. He needs to drop out of the race right now for the sake of party unity.

  9. Dan Chmielewski
    February 27, 2008 at 9:42 am

    Heather, the SNL skit showing how the press fawns over Obama was hysterical as was Tina Fey’s “Bitch is the New Black.” There was a great Catholic School reference too about how the nuns who taught were “bitches” and how th ekids hated them, but by God by the end of the year, you knoew what the capitol of Vermont was.

    Matt — this race could go all the way to the convention and it won’t matter. The country largely favors Democrats and with McCain still having to woo conservative voters, it won’t matter. The party will unite behind the winner and we’ll paint the country Blue.

  10. February 27, 2008 at 9:45 am

    Mike – Point taken and it’s a fair one. I just don’t think Hillary has proven that she can do well in the GE as how her campaign has been run so far. As things go on, I have less confidence in this.

    Clinton would be a great nominee, I don’t argue that, but right now, it’s becoming clearer and clearer that she won’t be and I would hate to see her drag this to the convention.

  11. Andrew Davey
    February 27, 2008 at 9:53 am


    Hold on a moment. How is it becoming “clearer and clearer” that Hillary has lost? The whole point I am trying to make today is that this race isn’t over yet and we simply don’t know who the nominee will be. Let’s at least wait and see on march 5 if there’s any clear indication. Take a look at the current delegate counter…

    And let’s talk when one of the two builds a more substantial lead than just 54 delegates.

  12. February 27, 2008 at 10:01 am

    Sorry Andrew, I see someone who has lost what, the last 11 races? And as she campaigns more in those states that are to decide, Obama consistently narrows that margin that she starts out with as a lead.

    I know the delegate count is close, very close, I get that. I have been arguing for Hillary to stay in it up until the past couple of days as she tries out different plans of attack on Obama and I’m troubled by it. This is just one person’s opinion. But I am also guessing that Hillary will not win any of the States on the 5th by the wide margin she needs in order to catch up on delegates.

  13. Dan Chmielewski
    February 27, 2008 at 10:12 am

    Heather – Obama has won three “big states” on Virginia, Wisconsin and Illinois. And with the exception of the Virigin Island vote that was 90% to 10%, hardly a knockout. They are both neck and neck with a number of states to go and neither of them will likely have the required number of delegates by the convention. If Obama doesn’t reach the magical number by the convention, well, he hasn’t won anything either.

  14. February 27, 2008 at 10:18 am

    Ah yes, the “big states”. I’m just also tired of Clinton’s campaign marginalizing victories and saying, they don’t count. They all count! The Potomac primary proved that Obama is also capable of getting the votes that Hillary was depending on except for one demographic, women over fifty.

    I never said it was a “knockout” but I’m prognosticating and I am guessing about next week and if it is as bad for her as I think it will be, then I hope she does consider leaving the race.

  15. February 27, 2008 at 10:24 am

    Matt — this race could go all the way to the convention and it won’t matter. The country largely favors Democrats and with McCain still having to woo conservative voters, it won’t matter. The party will unite behind the winner and we’ll paint the country Blue.

    My prediction is Obama wins the nomination, and the race between him and McCain tightens the closer it gets to November. Whichever one wins, will win narrowly.

    Otherwise, trying to predict the what the political situation will be 8 months from now is foolish.

  16. Dan Chmielewski
    February 27, 2008 at 10:54 am

    Heather — we’re counting delegates, not states. And they all count and that’s why the race is closer than you are portraying it to be.

    If this gets to the convention and the SuperDelegates do in fact decide the nomintion and she wins, are you going to vote for McCain over Hillary?

  17. February 27, 2008 at 11:01 am

    Dan – Yes, we are counting delegates but at the same time, I still don’t think it’s wise to for Clinton to say that any of the states don’t matter!

    And if superdelegates decide it to Clinton with Obama having more delegates and more popular votes than my concern will be for the party and for all those people who voted for Obama, all those people he brought out in massive numbers like ever before. I know people are worried about disenfranchising Michigan and Florida voters, include them then, but letting the Superdelegates decide will really hurt the party in my opinion for a generation, all those new voters will think, it was for nothing! That matters to me.

    And, I can’t believe you even asked the last question. I know I haven’t been here long, but I’d rather cut my foot off than vote for McCain, I’ve always been clear that if Clinton was the nominee, I would not only vote for her, I would fight for her.

  18. February 27, 2008 at 11:09 am

    I reserve the right to count Hillary out when she loses 11 races in a row. Or when she starts using campaign appearances to try to drag her opponent down rather than present her agenda and qualifications in a positive light. Or when she desperately whines about being the first person questioned in a nationally televised debate. But WAIT – SHE ALREADY HAS!
    Have you seen a ship beginning to sink? I have. Many times. And the Clinton campaign is starting to resemble one.
    So apart from your adoration of Senator Clinton, what qualifies YOU to tell me when I can or should count someone out?
    And Dan-
    I hate to say it, but a McCain/Clinton race would force this Democrat to give Nader a serious look. Not that it would matter one bit to CA electors.

  19. February 27, 2008 at 11:27 am


    If Hillary uses any undemocratic method to steal the nomination from Obama, you bet I will vote for Nader. There is only one way either should get the nomination and that is for the Superdelegates to fall in line with whoever has the most pledged delegates. We had record turnout in all these states, for Hillary to give them the middle finger because of her selfish desire to be President just turns my stomach.

  20. Eric
    February 27, 2008 at 11:32 am

    Oh please Andrew. Best debate performance ever? Not even by a long shot. She looked angry, and peevish. I don’t think she stayed on message. Of the three debates with the two of them, this was the worst (for both), but that tie goes to Obama given his momentum. He has won 10 or 11 contests in a row. He is breaking into her coalition with each state. She is losing the popular vote, the delegate count (and now by a substantial margin ~150), and the state count. And the supers are moving towards Obama. He has picked up 20 since Super Tues and she has lost 5. I am no way counting Hillary out, but she is definitely on the decline. I expect her to lose 2 of the 4 states on Tues. Including one of her firewall states, TX. She will narrowly win OH and win RI solidly. Unfortunately for your candidate, unless she wins both OH and TX the race is over for her.

  21. Andrew Davey
    February 27, 2008 at 11:32 am

    Claudio & Publius-

    Should I remember your statements if Obama is nominated? And should I then vote for Nader? After all, doesn’t he want to disenfranchise Florida & Michigan Democrats? And hasn’t Hillary won so far among Democrats overall when Independent and Republican votes are taken out?

    Really, chill out. March 4 hasn’t even arrived yet. And IF your candidate does happen to win, you’re not doing a good job of winning over me and other Hillary supporters.

  22. anna shane
    February 27, 2008 at 11:36 am

    Obama plays a tough game of poker, and he likes things to end with the others giving up so he needn’t show his ‘stuff.’ He plays all his hands and he doesn’t back down, even when he’s been caught lying, he comes back with the same lie the next day. He tries to run the clock by blithering and like bush if she called him on everything, like using her words and her plans, there’s just too much. Skits are only funny when they reveal truth, the SLN skit would have fallen flat had it not revealed truth. The same with her joke about magic wands. Those who mock her appearance and her emotions get big laughs, and the truth revealed is misogyny, in that if you didn’t hate ‘her’ it wouldn’t be funny. She’s not going to quit even though he’d feel ever so good if she would, she wants to see his hand, and so should the rest of us. Obama asked to see Bill’s stuff and he was ever so mad that Bill joked that he was ready to meet him for a dance contest, Obama was all pissy, was all, ‘that was not what I meant and he knows it.’ I thought that was very funny. So, Senator Obama, show us you stuff, lay down the cards, let’s see what you’ve got there.

  23. February 27, 2008 at 12:09 pm

    1) I don’t particularly care who you choose to vote for in November.
    2) Nobody disenfranchised any voters in FL and MI. They chose to vote in election despite knowing the ground rules (set by the DNC) that it WOULD NOT COUNT for delegate selection.
    3) Did the Hillary campaign not know which states allowed independents to vote? Or which ones allowed crossover voting? Was that a big secret only shared with Obama? AFAIK they ALL campaigned to Independents and Republicans where appropriate. I could select a few demographic groups to remove and show Obama winning by larger margins. It wouldn’t mean anything.
    The OC Registrar doesn’t have a tally of votes that came from Dems and how many came from DTS voters. Nor does the CA SOS. So where are you getting this information? My guess would be the dubiously reliable exit polls.
    4) It’s not my job to win you over. You’ll have plenty of time to make your own personal decision.

  24. Mike Meyer
    February 27, 2008 at 12:10 pm

    Heather: Obama has not managed to get a majority of Democrats’ votes in the primaries, and to date, he has carried not one big blue state in the primaries save Illinois, where he is a native son. I am puzzled that people think the race is over when the Senator from Illinois has yet to prove real momentum in states that are central to any Democratic strategy for electoral victory.

    Claudio, be careful what you wish for. We Hillary supporters can play the same way. Either we’re all for the nominee, regardless of who he or she is, or we can all play the game of going and sulking in our corners. If Obama manages to win a majority of Democrats (without any help from interloping Republicans and independents), I shall concede his moral victory. He’s not there yet.

  25. February 27, 2008 at 12:35 pm

    There’s an article over at HuffPost today titled “Is the Media Biased against Hillary, or Is She Just Too Fat?”

    I didn’t even read the article. The title says it all!

  26. Andrew Davey
    February 27, 2008 at 12:45 pm


    Hmmm, interesting. I never hear the media criticize McCain’s beer belly or ask if Obama’s thighs are too big. But hey, I guess we could never allow a fat girl to become President… Now can we? (/snark) 😉

  27. February 27, 2008 at 12:50 pm

    Mike M-
    Where are you getting those numbers?
    I have yet to see any state’s results broken down by Dem/Rep/Independent.
    So how can anybody know which candidate got more Democratic votes?
    Not that I think it really matters (see knowing the ground rules in my previous comment).

  28. February 27, 2008 at 1:01 pm

    Mike -Many of those big blue states have issues beyond the ones you mention. Many of those who voted in California sent their ballots in early, as I recall, for those who decided closer to the election, Obama was performing much better. Clinton is the Senator from New York, enough said, that was a big state she had to win and she did handily.

    I continue to believe that as Obama campaigns he gains more support and that Feb. 5th shows that in how the numbers started changing as people decided closer to the actual vote.

  29. Dan Chmielewski
    February 27, 2008 at 3:07 pm

    Heather — take no umbrage in the last question; it was posed merely to show the right wingers who come to this site that, despite our differences, will will unite behind our party’s nominee.

    Pub & Claudio — If Hillary wins the nomination via super delegates, then she has won according to the rules of our party. Go and vote for Nader; its really a vote for McCain.

  30. Eric
    February 27, 2008 at 3:38 pm

    Gila — that headline about Hillary was part of HuffPo’s comedy section, 23/6. It was not a real headline, a la the Onion.

  31. February 27, 2008 at 3:39 pm


    Truth doesn’t matter to the Hillary shills. It is sad how they have decided to coarsen the debate into a bunch of personal attacks and outright phony numbers about Obama not having Democratic support, even though there is not a shred of evidence to prove it.

    Fact is, I would support Hillary in a heartbeat if she had a complete turn around, passed up Obama on pledged delegates and lead by the overall popular vote. It sounds like they are not even going to support Obama even if he wins the most pledged delegates and the primary popular vote. That is too bad.

    The only situation I would not vote for Clinton is if she strongarmed the superdelegates at the convention to give the proverbial middle finger to ALL those new voters across America by ignoring their will and demanding she be made the nominee. I support Democracy and the will of THE PEOPLE! That is why I am a Democrat.

  32. February 27, 2008 at 3:40 pm

    Eric — I didn’t read the article but it was quite obvious that the headline was tongue in cheek.

    Everyone else — all this silly sniping back and forth between Obama and Hillary supporters serves only one purpose: to increase the number of votes for McCain. Just look at Martin Wisckol’s current poll. There’s nothing the Reeps want more than for us to continue the infighting. Want to help McCain? Just keep up the public arguing.

  33. February 27, 2008 at 4:02 pm

    No surprise here: I expect Hillary to lose the nomination fight. Even if she wins in Texas and Ohio, it will be narrow and not enough. Obama polls significantly better than her against McCain and because super delegates know it, Obama is closing the super delegate gap with her. The electorate can see it too, which is why the polls in Texas and Ohio continue to narrow. Even when/if Clinton *wins* in those states, it will be too narrow to make much difference in delegates or public perception. But she might lose Texas outright. And Ohio? At the end of January she *always* polled a 20% plus lead against Obama. Now she has a lead barely beyond the margin of error.


  34. DCDemocrat
    February 27, 2008 at 4:39 pm

    thesunkenroad: No surprise here. I expect Hillary to win the nomination fight. Even she loses Texas and Ohio, it will be wide and more than enough. Obama is a flash in the pan.

  35. February 27, 2008 at 4:52 pm

    Wiskcol’s “poll” of self-selected opinion leaders holds as much water as a sieve.
    I’ll believe he’s an unbiased journalist when he stops referring to Democratic candidates as “longshots vying for the GOP-dominated seats in the state legislature and Congress”

  36. anna shane
    February 27, 2008 at 5:02 pm

    It’s ironic that those ‘shrills’ are simply waiting to see who actually wins, and hooping our first choice is the nominee. I don’t know what planet the poster who calls us shrill lives on, but it’s very unpleasant stuff.On the other hand this is what is motivating the kids to vote at all, and that’s cool. If they take their toys and go home if their first choice is also their only choice, then they’re not democrats. We need to select the best candidate to clean the bush mess and to take advantage of this time of broken everything to get things right. If she loses with the voters it’ll be okay with me, but if she receives threats that insist she drop out for the good of Obama, then I’m not sure what I’d do. I don’t like the rumblings against her, he can inspire devotion but he may also inspire something less wonderful. He ought to first clean up his own rhetoric and practice what he preaches, and then he might lose some of his own supporters, but the party will be stronger. We’re in a party, the Democratic one, not in some star talent show.

  37. Dan Chmielewski
    February 27, 2008 at 5:26 pm

    Pub — I want to see the process through; it is too close now with a long road yet to go for either of them to drop out. Let the whole country have its say and we’ll see where we are the end of the primary process.

    But don’t start putting conditions on Hillary unless you’re wiling to have conditions placed on Obama. We have two historic and exceptional candidates running. Let them make their case to the voters, positive or negative, and trust the voters to be smart enough to figure it out.

    Then support the nominee with all your heart and soul. Otherwise, its 4 years of McCain and W-lite.

  38. Northcountystorm
    February 27, 2008 at 6:25 pm

    Anna— That be Claudio and he lives on the Planet OJ. He’s actually a good guy and bright too. But clearly hyperbole thy name is Claudio. If I were looking at middle fingers, I’d target Ted Kennedy’s middle finger to the voters of Massachusetts, or the middle finger Howard Dean and the DNC flaks are giving to 1.6 million Florida Democrats.

    Gila’s right(as usual) but it’s difficult for some to pass on some of the offensive attacks and suggestions that she withdraw while significant elections are still before us. If it was Obama being encouraged to withdraw I suspect some of the same people whingin about HIllary staying in would be whining about calls for Obama to get out. But life moves on.

    To the Clinton people I’d say— don’t take this horse race blah blah, time to go back to the kitchen stuff personally or with too much offense. If Clinton was in Obama’s spot her campaign people(who have already managed to bungle a number of things)would be suggesting it would be time for Barack to go back to the Senate or Springfield. It’s politics.

  39. February 27, 2008 at 6:49 pm

    DC Democrat,

    I’m trying to understand your point, but I can’t because it comes in a self-contradictory statement. You seem to claim that even if Clinton loses Texas and Ohio she’ll win more than enough delegates to secure her the nomination. You do know that one has to win more delegates than her competitor to become the nominee, right?

  40. February 27, 2008 at 6:56 pm


    Something that was just reported that speaks to your point about how “the longer [Obama] campaigns” the more support he seems to garner: another Clinton super delegate, John Lewis, just jumped ship for the other side. See:


  41. February 27, 2008 at 7:10 pm

    NCS: I appreciate the acknowledgment of my rightitude (a perfectly cromulent word), but I think you misunderstand me. I don’t believe the Obama people should be saying that Hillary should withdraw, nor do I believe the Clinton people should say Obama is telling lies and such.

    Everybody just stop. It’s ALL offensive. And it’s giving votes to McCain.

  42. February 27, 2008 at 7:58 pm

    Face it folks. Obama has pulled a “Bill Clinton” on Hillary. He is younger, more interesting and by far more inspirational.

    It is not that we are not ready to elect a woman. It’s just that Hillary is the WRONG woman. Feinstein would have waltzed to the nomination. And she would have gone on to tattoo McCain.

    Most Americans cannot stand Hillary – she has no charm. She is shrill and angry and quite frankly annoying.

    Obama, by contrast, is a breath of fresh air. He will win the nomination. If Shrillary steals it, I expect a lot of Dems will go the Claudio route and vote for Nader.

    As for the few Hillary hacks out there, my advice – get on the Obama train. Hillary is terminada!

  43. Dan Chmielewski
    February 27, 2008 at 9:44 pm

    Art — you’ re beyond wrong here. Most conservatives can’t stand the Clintons and have taken their hate of Bill and transferred it to Hillary.

  44. February 27, 2008 at 11:24 pm


    It is not just conservatives! Hillary has not won even one primary since Super Tuesday. Everyone is turning on her! You must be blind not to see this.

    How pissed is Hillary? Obama is pulling a Bill Clinton on her. Once again she is getting punked by a younger, smarter, more interesting and more dynamic male candidate. If she grits her teeth any harder she might start a fire in her mouth…

    At least when Bill cheated on her Hillary was able to give him a shiner. She can’t do a thing to Obama. When she finally loses the nomination you will be able to bottle her bitterness and sell it to those companies that make sour candy…

  45. Andrew Davey
    February 28, 2008 at 6:17 am


    I’m sorry if some of us here were going a little overboard last night with the rage. I just know that passions are still high and anger is still overflowing over the current state of the race. Hopefully NO ONE here truly wants to let McCain win this fall, so we should all try to avoid any invective.


    We shouldn’t be surprised here. Art used to BE one of those conservative Republicans bashing “the Clintons” 24/7, so I guess we shouldn’t be shocked to see him here bashing Hillary. However, I guess what still shocked me somewhat was the misogyny found in his last comment. It just baffles me how some right-wingers show no respect for this honorable woman running for Commander-in-Chief. It just makes me wonder if they’d feel “emboldened” to say the same trashy things to their female co-workers, family members, and friends that they always say about Hillary.

  46. Mike Meyer
    February 28, 2008 at 6:40 am

    Art: As a lifelong Democrat, I prefer that Republicans select their nominee, and Democrats have the same privilege. If Barack Obama can gain traction among Democrats and win the nomination with the support of a majority of the members of my party, I shall be happy about the process. But if he needs the votes of Republican and independent interlopers to secure the nod of my party, he may face a reckoning among the party regulars come the fall.

  47. campskunk
    February 28, 2008 at 6:47 am

    Art – are you sure you’re in the right party? Us democrats kinda frown on gender-based hatred. I think you’d be more comfortable in the republican party- they hate women AND a lot of other minority groups you probably dislike as well. You may be more comfortable over with the Republicans.

  48. February 28, 2008 at 10:56 am

    CS: Art is a former Reep who is now DTS. He tends to dislike both parties, though I think when he attacks the Dems his attitude is “it’s one thing for the Reeps to pull that stuff, but you Dems should be above it.”

    The difficulty is that no Party is monolithic nor can either Party herd all its cats. Every Party is made up of hundreds of thousands of individuals who are all doing their own thing.

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