Polls in Ohio and Texas

With a week to go, Senator Hillary Clinton holds leads of 5 to 9 points over Senator Barack Obama in Ohio; she holds a small lead in Texas at 50-48 percent making the race in the Lone Star State a statisical dead heat.

Despite Senator Obama’s impressive string of victories, he has only a small lead over Senator Clinton.

What I increasingly hear from fellow Democrats is we want to see an Obama-Clinton ticket or a Clinton-Obama ticket. I’d like to see both camps start talking about their campaigns in a positive fashion instead of tearing down their opponents.

  31 comments for “Polls in Ohio and Texas

  1. February 26, 2008 at 10:27 am

    I would not like to see her on Obama’s ticket! Barack Obama/Wesley Clark 08

  2. February 26, 2008 at 11:18 am

    Sen. Clinton indeed is holding onto a narrowing lead in Texas and, according to some polls, Ohio. The more telling fact is that her lead is steadily declining. The downward trend in her polling numbers is more significant than that she still has the lead. That Obama has narrowed 20+ point margins in Texas and Ohio in the week since Wisconsin speaks louder than Clinton’s current hold – and there’s another week to go.

    We all know that the polls have been particularly unreliable this election season. So it’s best not to look at one day’s results. A month before California, Clinton was 20-25 points ahead. She won by 10. A month before New Hampshire she was ahead by 20 points. She won by 3. Nevada, a month out, again ahead by those 20 points and with mixed results. This trend of a diminishing Clinton lead is quite consistent, even to the point where Obama has won everything since Super Tuesday – often by 2 to 1 and sometimes higher.

    The notion of both candidates running together isn’t a dream ticket. It’s a fantasy. It can’t happen. Clinton’s does look at Obama as that upstart freshman who got in her way, dammit. And she sure wouldn’t accept second slot if it were offered. She’d be brilliant as Senate Majority Leader – and far more effective than as VP.

    Giuliani lost a half dozen races and is out. Romney, too. Dodd, Biden, Richardson, Kucinich, the same. And John Edwards. If Obama had lost every race since Super Tuesday, the calls for him to drop out would be nearly unanimous. Sen. Clinton enjoys great deference. There is no such similar chorus for Clinton to drop out. Yet. That may change after next Tuesday. But today, no one knows.

  3. demmother
    February 26, 2008 at 1:08 pm

    Dan,

    It is a lovely prospect but I do not see it happening. To run as Hillary’s Veep is tantamount to entering a cloister for 8 years. I see no opportunity for anyone to develop as Hillary’s VP.

    To have Hillary as number 2 on the ticket has another peril… who wants to be upstaged by Bill?

    Dream ticket most definitely but I would not expect/nor ask anyone to dump their own career for such a prospect. There are other equally attractive or better choices.

    It is not March 4. We need to let it shake out and hope that neither side gets too negative on the other.

  4. February 26, 2008 at 1:57 pm

    Dem Mother,

    Hillary has already gone down that road of going super negative. It is a shame no one on The Liberal OC is criticizing her blatantly racist and bigoted actions.

  5. RLG
    February 26, 2008 at 2:33 pm

    With the coming of March 17th, OBAMA has the luck of the IRISH!!

    Or is he Scottish??

  6. Dan Chmielewski
    February 26, 2008 at 4:32 pm

    Claudio — we’ll criticize Hillary only if we can criticize Obama for some of his tactics too.

    RLG — he’s part Irish; and since Melanie Morgan in SF calls Obama a “Halfrican” for not being black enough, I’m going to guess that Obana is Irish enough either.

  7. February 26, 2008 at 4:57 pm

    Good point, Claudio.

    Dan’s routinely badgers me to comment on this GOP thing or that GOP candidate’s statement.

    Now it’s utter silence here on the TheLiberalOC.com. And they can’t use “it’s an Orange County blog” for an excuse, since half the posts aren’t about OC.

    Come on — none of the LiberalOC bloggers is going to step up and say, “That was sleazy”?

    And change-the-subject or what-about-you dodges don’t count.

  8. February 26, 2008 at 5:19 pm

    Hey Jubal did you condemn George Allen over his racist “macaca” statement?

    Just asking???

  9. February 26, 2008 at 5:21 pm

    “what-about-you dodges don’t count.”

    Why not? You live by the standards you expect oters to live don’t you? If not, wouldn’t that mak you a hypocrite?

  10. Northcountystorm
    February 26, 2008 at 5:49 pm

    Bill–You’re right about the unreliability of the polls–but I guess you just forgot the examples of Obama leading by double digits in some pre-California and New Hampshire polls.

    If Obama had lost 10 states and a district in a row but still trailed Clinton by 100 delegates with a number of states still to be heard from and I can guarantee you that the calls that you would hear would be the calls of people saying the calls for Obama to withdraw were racist or unfair. The idea that the calls for withdrawl would be unanimous is the most creative spin I’ve heard today.

    The fact that the Obama and Clinton campaign commandantes don’t want to entertain thoughts of a united ticket doesn’t mean the rank and file would not dig it. It’s probably not likely to happen but then again, John Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson were not exactly buddy buddys and campaign insiders would have been aghast if you’d asked them about such a ticket. But for now its just as well to write that idea off and relegate Clinton to Majority leader and Obama to U.N. Ambassador if they fall short at the Convention.

    Caludio- There you go again with the “shameful, offensive fear mongering.” Save it for November if your new candidate is more successful then your old one.

  11. Northcountystorm
    February 26, 2008 at 6:00 pm

    Jubal–Sleazy, ok. But stupid, surely. No point to it and allows Obama campaign to run their “I am a victim” mantra. But me thinks that the Obama campaign doth protest too much. Next thing they will be objecting to the use of his full name.

    Primaries are interesting laboratories for opp reaseach and determinations on how far one can go before getting the public to crack back. The GOP is trying to determine how far they can go in attacking Obama without getting a boomerang effect. I’m sure they are watching intensely to how this stupid ploy by some staffers plays out.

  12. Jubal
    February 26, 2008 at 6:16 pm

    NCStorm:

    I now I posted on Red County about the “Clintons deciding to go out ugly” but upon further reflection it probably was sent out without Bill and Hill’s knowledge, and may well have been “leaked” without senior staff approval. Surely, they would be savvy enough to know it would simply blow up in their faces. Unless they have polling data showing it hurt Obama with key demographics in Texas and Ohio. Who knows.

  13. February 26, 2008 at 6:49 pm

    Jubal: Whomever is responsible I think it was sleazy. It makes Clinton look desperate.

    We’re down a few bloggers this week. Chris and Heather have been sick and I’m just really busy.

  14. Dan Chmielewski
    February 26, 2008 at 7:36 pm

    Now it’s utter silence here on the TheLiberalOC.com. And they can’t use “it’s an Orange County blog” for an excuse, since half the posts aren’t about OC.

    **No one here is saying this but you; and its a freaking national election year in case you didn’t notice**

    Come on — none of the LiberalOC bloggers is going to step up and say, “That was sleazy”?

    **And the right wingers constanting referring to him as Barack Hussein Obama (or Osama) isn’t? Tame compared to the vile stuff you guys routinely push out. As I said, he’s put out nasty stuff about her, and she’s returned the favor. This is no different than the spats between McCain and Romney.

    And change-the-subject or what-about-you dodges don’t count.
    **you do this all the time; you routniely take one spec of detail and turnthe post on its head about it. The subject of this post has to do with poll numbers in Ohio and Texas on the Democratic side. Do you have an opinion on that?***

    Lastly, “Dan’s routinely badgers me to comment on this GOP thing or that GOP candidate’s statement.”

    Apparantly, I read more right wing books than you do, and listen to more right wing talkers than you do to.

  15. February 26, 2008 at 7:52 pm

    Dan,

    Jubal wants to come over here and tell us to get our house in order and yet does nothing to clean up his own house. I don’t ever remember reading him condemning anyone on the right for the vicious and sometimes racist attacks on Obama.

    I also notice that he did not condemn the bumper stickers at the CRA convention that referred to Hillary as a “bitch”. However that is par for the course with this guy.

    Now I gotta run and create an alter ego to agree with my positions that I write on here. Hmmm??? Where else did I read about a local blogger doing something so underhanded and dishonest???

  16. Dan Chmielewski
    February 26, 2008 at 8:21 pm

    Sean — I have addressed the Obama photo head on. Read the whole thing

  17. February 26, 2008 at 8:51 pm

    Northcountystorm,

    The fact that I did not list them is not to suggest I “forgot about” them. Actually, your mention of them serves to illustrate my point: the daily numbers are unreliable and it is the long trend that is. My initial assertion is still accurate. Before anyone started voting anywhere, Clinton led by large margins everywhere. As election day/caucus day approaches, that lead diminishes and in many cases Obama wins. As a consequence, he is ahead of Clinton except for unpledged delegates.

    Nowhere in my earlier post did I criticize the Clinton campaign for her not dropping out so your characterization of a hypothetical Obama response is a leap. The clear implication, however, of what I said is that if Obama found himself in the position that Clinton is in now, he would indeed be invited to exit the stage. What I did say was there is no such clamor for Clinton to do that. Yet. Also, I did not say unanimous. It was qualified.

    Senate Majority Leader is in fact a very powerful position. Sen. Clinton, as Majority Leader, can have a very substantial role in setting the agenda and shaping the legislation that gets to the president’s desk. The president can’t sign bills that the Majority Leader doesn’t permit being voted on. The form legislation takes is also influenced by the Majority Leader. And yes, I do know there are 99 other senators.

    And thank you for your compliment, though I’m not convinced I’m worthy. To say that my few words here are the most creative spin you’ve heard today is most generous of you. It suggests that I’ve outdone all the professionals with all the campaigns, all the surrogates, and all the media talking heads. It is an honor.

  18. February 27, 2008 at 8:44 pm

    **No one here is saying this but you; and its a freaking national election year in case you didn’t notice**

    Dan, maybe you noticed it was actually Claudio who first raised the topic of silence on the LiberalOC regarding this issue, not me. I merely seconded his emotion. Remember — you replied to his comment just before I did

    And change-the-subject or what-about-you dodges don’t count.
    **you do this all the time; you routniely take one spec of detail and turnthe post on its head about it. The subject of this post has to do with poll numbers in Ohio and Texas on the Democratic side. Do you have an opinion on that?***

    You may consider some of my points picayune, Dan. But I take issue with what people actually say and respond to that. I don’t respond by trying to change the subject to something completely unrelated: “Oh yeah! What about (some creepy/corrupt Democrat’s name)?”

    Lastly, “Dan’s routinely badgers me to comment on this GOP thing or that GOP candidate’s statement.”

    Apparantly, I read more right wing books than you do, and listen to more right wing talkers than you do to.

    I’m sure you do. I only listen to talk radio when I’m driving, and then sporadically. I don’t read pundit books, either.

  19. February 27, 2008 at 8:58 pm

    Hey Jubal did you condemn George Allen over his racist “macaca” statement?

    Just asking???

    Ah. Sean Mill. The angriest man in the OC blogosphere.

    Racist comment? Nobody even know what “macaca” means, or Allen meant by it. But that mushroomed so quickly into a “racist” incident that whatever the truth was, it didn’t matter.

    “what-about-you dodges don’t count.”

    Why not? You live by the standards you expect oters to live don’t you? If not, wouldn’t that mak you a hypocrite?

    Sean, sometimes I find it hard to believe we are about the same age, because you act like my teenager when she’s having a bad day (just not as mature).

    Again, I don’t use what-about-you dodges. That would be a Sean and Dan debate tactic.

    But feel free to continue making things up.

    You can take the blogger out of Orange Juice, but it seems you can’t take the Orange Juice out of the blogger.

    Jubal wants to come over here and tell us to get our house in order and yet does nothing to clean up his own house.

    Sean, Sean, Sean. Two words: Reading. Comprehension. Try it.

    I have done nothing of the kind. If you think you need to get your house in order, that’s you. I didn’t say you needed to. I only agreed with Claudio for pointing out no one on LiberalOC was saying anything about this incident. Completely different thing.

    I also notice that he did not condemn the bumper stickers at the CRA convention that referred to Hillary as a “bitch”. However that is par for the course with this guy.

    Yeah, because bumper stickers at political conventions (Rep and Dem alike) are exactly the same thing as the Clinton campaign putting out a photo of Barack Obama wearing a turban.

    It’s called “perspective,” Sean. It really helps to have some.

    Now I gotta run and create an alter ego to agree with my positions that I write on here. Hmmm??? Where else did I read about a local blogger doing something so underhanded and dishonest???

    I think that would have been you when you were at Orange Juice, Sean.

  20. Dan Chmielewski
    February 27, 2008 at 9:52 pm

    “Racist comment? Nobody even know what “macaca” means, or Allen meant by it. But that mushroomed so quickly into a “racist” incident that whatever the truth was, it didn’t matter.”

    Matt, Matt, Matt — your ignorance on this political event surprises me. “Macaca” is an ephitet used by colonists in the Belgian Congo to describe the natives; its essentially a derogatory slang term for a monkey and Allen’s grandmother may have actually taught him the word and the context of the word (Allen was a high school grad from Palos Verdes and when he failed to show for a high school reunion, some former classmates wondered if “he was still racist.” He had a thing for confederate bumperstickers on his car and kept a noose in his office.

    The Macaca term was thrown at a member of Jim Webb’sstaff sent to videotape the Senator; the man was of Indian heritage and had very dark skin. The word, the term, was delivered in context. And it cost Allen the election and a shot at the conservative bid for president.

    As for the photo of Obama in a turban, big deal. Its not going to change any minds one way or the other.

  21. February 27, 2008 at 10:19 pm

    Matt, Matt, Matt — your ignorance on this political event surprises me. “Macaca” is an ephitet used by colonists in the Belgian Congo to describe the natives;

    OK. Liberals lampooned Allen as being an idiot, and yet I’m supposed to believe he was aware of some obscure slur used by Belgian Congo colonists more than half a century ago?

    I remember the episode, and the various theories going around as the what the hell macaca even meant.

    And here I am falling for a Dan-and-Sean misdirection technique.

    As for the photo of Obama in a turban, big deal. Its not going to change any minds one way or the other.

    Which, even if true, misses the point, which is — as other commenters have pointed out — that the Clinton campaign, as some level of staff, was tapping into the fringe fantasies that Obama is a crypto-Muslim by circulating a picture of him wearing a turban. But I’ve given up any thought you might acknowldge that simple, obvious reality.

  22. February 27, 2008 at 10:27 pm

    “you act like my teenager when she’s having a bad day”

    Hey Matt or is it Jubal? I can never get it straight. Thankfully the OCWeekly helped me out and exposed you for the the fraud that you are.

    What I was going to say is that you better keep your daughter away from your pal Urell’s friends. Or don’t you have to worry because the only prey upon and molest young boys?

  23. February 27, 2008 at 10:54 pm

    Hey Matt or is it Jubal? I can never get it straight. Thankfully the OCWeekly helped me out and exposed you for the the fraud that you are.

    You mean the same OC Weekly story that carried Paul Brennan’s byline when it ran, but that Will Swaim later admitted he wrote? Which is the “dishonest logrolling” Swaim accused me of?

    if you want to put your faith into that sloppy hatchet job, Sean, be my guest. I’m sure you find it a comforting bed time story.

    So toddle along back into your hole, Sean. The other slugs are getting lonely.

  24. February 27, 2008 at 11:02 pm

    Speaking of toddling along Jubal, I notice you’ve been spending a substantial amount of time over on our blog. What is it? You have more time on your hands now that the pedophile enabler you so stedfastly defended left the country?

    Slugs? What do you call your friends like Urell and the pedophiles he enabled?

  25. February 27, 2008 at 11:12 pm

    You really are an arrested adolescent, aren’t you?

    I enjoy debating with intelligent liberals. Which would exclude you.

    My views on Msgr. Urell and the Church clergy scandal are out there for anyone to see. It’s pointless to debate them with an angry churl like you who’s more interested in twisting my views and childish one upmanship games, than in grown-up discussion. It’d be more enlightening debating a chimp.

  26. February 27, 2008 at 11:26 pm

    Dan,

    You could not be more wrong. If Hillary ends up on the Obama ticket I will definitely be voting for McCain. Or Nader. But definitely not for any ticket that has Shrillary on it.

    Maybe Obama can appoint her Ambassador to North Korea or Iran after he wins the Presidency. With any luck she won’t come back from her first visit to her new post…

  27. February 28, 2008 at 8:22 am

    Jubal,

    Obviously you are more interested in name-calling. You turn to that line of attack when you positions are brought to light.

    Just look at a few of the folks that you have vigorously defended:

    Mike Carona
    Trung Nguyen
    John Urell

    Those are some grade A “slugs” and yet you choose to call me names. A class act as always.

    You attack the writer of the OCWeekly story, however you don’t dispute the fact included in the article. Did you not fail to disclose that you had received money from folks that you them propped up on your right-wing rag of a blog? Did you not have posts in which Matt agreed with Jubal and Jubal agreed with Matt? Do you not find this to be slightly dishonest?

    While your actions are tame to many in the Republican party, they are dishonest just the same. Go ahead and call me names and hurl insults. Coming from someone with as little integrity as you they are badges of honor.

  28. February 28, 2008 at 11:34 am

    Sean:

    Read back in the comments. The personal attacks start with you. They always do.

    Did you not fail to disclose that you had received money from folks that you them propped up on your right-wing rag of a blog?

    Brennan/Swaim accused me of “failing to disclose” that candidates paying blogads were paying for blogads. It’s a bogus charge. Swaim was pissed because I’d taken apart a couple of error-ridden OC Weekly articles. So they paid me back with that hatchet job.

    Did you not have posts in which Matt agreed with Jubal and Jubal agreed with Matt?

    There was a period in which I was writing for FR Blog under my name while my “Jubal” identity was not known. And during that time, on a number of occasions I linked to my OC Blog posts from an FR post, and vice versa. Big deal. There’s nothing dishonest about it.

    And frankly, being taken to task for it by Will Swaim — who in that article was engaging in the very behavior he accused me of — is a bit much.

    As for your histrionics and opinions, Sean, I could care less because you are a slug.

  29. February 28, 2008 at 12:23 pm

    “Sean, I could care less because you are a slug.”

    Coming from someone that cheerleads for a Sheriff that is devoid of morality and will soon be a convicted felon or defends an individual who enabled pedophiles to pray upon children, your opinion of me matters very little.

    You can judge folks by the company they keep. I guess that can tell us all we need to know about you Jubal. Or are you Matt today?

  30. Northcountystorm
    February 28, 2008 at 12:28 pm

    Sean–The stuff about Matt’s daughter is over the top. This is a post about Texas and Ohio, not the other stuff you’ve dragged into it. Matt engaged whch was a mistake, understandable, but a mistake. But your pre-emptive strike got it going and even if you disagree with that observation, the comment about Matt’s daughter is still bad form.

    Dan demonstrates you can get in Matt’s face and still be civil. You have some good points but they sometimes get lost in the stuff that Ware Disposal hauls away.

  31. Dan Chmielewski
    February 28, 2008 at 4:54 pm

    Sean — Leave Matt’s daughter out of it; Matt, refrain from name-calling

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