Obama-mentum! Version 9.0

Senator Barack Obama has racked up his ninth straight victory with a win in the Wisconsin Primary by 17 points 58/41 %.  Senator Obama is also expected to win the Hawaii primary as well. Tonight has got to be depressing for the folks in the Clinton Campaign; really depressing for Senator Clinton.

Update: At the time this story was initially posted the total for Obama was 9-0.  With Hawaii’s caucus win, its 10-0.

Obamamentum 10.0!


NBC News and news services

Barack Obama cruised past a fading Hillary Rodham Clinton in the Wisconsin primary Tuesday night, gaining the upper hand in a Democratic presidential race for the ages.

It was Obama’s ninth straight victory over the past three weeks, and left the former first lady in desperate need of a comeback in a race she long commanded as front-runner.

“The change we seek is still months and miles away,” Obama told a boisterous crowd in Houston.

He cut deeply into Clinton’s political bedrock in Wisconsin, splitting the support of white women in Wisconsin almost evenly with the former first lady and running well among working class voters in the blue collar battleground, according to polling place interviews.

The economy and trade were key issues in the race, and seven in 10 voters said international trade has resulted in lost jobs in Wisconsin. Fewer than one in five said trade has created more jobs than it has lost.

Obama began the night with 1,116 delegates in tabulations by NBC News, and Clinton with 986. It takes 2,025 to win the nomination at the party’s national convention in Denver; Wisconsin offered 74 national convention delegates and an early test of support in industrial states like Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Voters also went to the polls in Hawaii, which had 20 delegates at stake and where neither Clinton nor Obama campaigned in person.

Speaking in Houston, Obama noted the results in Wisconsin and told cheering supporters, “Houston, I think we’ve achieved liftoff.”

Adding to tonights crushing defeat, Senator Clinton is now in a virtual tie in the polls running up to the March 5th primary contests in Texas and Ohio. A CNN poll out Monday gave Clinton a narrow 50%-48% lead against Obama in Texas and a separate USASurvey poll gave Clinton a slighter larger 50%-45% lead. I think I hear the pitter-patter of Clinton pledged super-delegate feet running around looking for a place to hide.

UPDATE: As the delegate tally clears up in the coming days we’ll know more, but at first glance Senator Clinton could need to pull around 70% of the delegates on March 5th to overtake Senator Obama’s pledged delegate lead. Does anyone really think that is probable, much less possible?  I know it ain’t over till it’s over; but the momentum is certainly on Obama’s side.

UPDATE #2: (From MSNBC FirstRead) The Delegate math: After last night’s contests, here’s where things stand: The NBC News Hard Count is Obama 1,168, Clinton 1,018. There are 53 delegates unallocated, including 19 in MD, 10 each in CO and GA, 6 in WI, 4 in HI, and one each in DC, TN, NY and IL. We estimate a conservative 27-26 split here. The Superdelegate Count: Clinton 257 versus Obama 185. That’s a grand total of: Obama 1,355, Clinton 1,276. Counting only the superdelegates he has now, plus his pledged delegates, Obama needs 65% of remaining PLEDGED delegates to hit the magic 2025 number. Reaching that is probably unrealistic, but when you add in the unaffiliated 353 superdelegates (76 of whom are not yet known yet and won’t be appointed until April, May and June), his magic percentage number is down to 48%. On the flip side, Clinton needs to win 58% of all remaining pledged delegates simply to get the pledged delegate lead back. Forget 2025. And if you assume Obama wins Vermont, Wyoming, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oregon, Montana, and South Dakota, then the magic percentage number in the states Clinton wins rises to 65% — SIMPLY TO GET THE PLEDGED DELEGATE LEAD BACK

  8 comments for “Obama-mentum! Version 9.0

  1. thesunkenroad
    February 19, 2008 at 9:27 pm

    Better than anticipated margin. hurrah.

  2. Andrew Davey
    February 20, 2008 at 6:07 am

    “Obama-mentum”? Sounds like a nasty gastro-intestinal disorder to me. Can’t I just take some Pepto-Bismol to stop the gas? Hopefully, it’s something that’s curable. 😉

  3. Aunt Millie
    February 20, 2008 at 6:58 am

    Sounds like a nasty gastro-intestinal disorder to me. Can’t I just take some Pepto-Bismol to stop the gas? Hopefully, it’s something that’s curable.

    No, you’re thinking of Joementum, and that is proving to be not only excruciatingly painful, but also increasingly embarassing and apparently incurable.

    Come home to Obama, Andrew. Your apostasy will be quickly forgotten.

  4. campskunk
    February 20, 2008 at 7:34 am

    gee, what a graceful, conciliatory message. not. more evidence that the obamabots are clueless in the art of political persuasion.

  5. Aunt Millie
    February 20, 2008 at 10:16 am

    Sorry if my humor fell flat. Let’s focus on something that we can all agree on, Obamabot and Hillary supporters alike. Our candidate is going to have overwhelming support from the American people, who are just finished with Bush, and his heir apparent, John “Dr. Strangelove” McCain.

    This is almost too amazing to believe.

    George W. Bush’s overall job approval rating has dropped to a new low in American Research Group polling as 78% of Americans say that the national economy is getting worse according to the latest survey from the American Research Group.

    Among all Americans, 19% approve of the way Bush is handling his job as president and 77% disapprove.

  6. February 20, 2008 at 10:48 am


    Obamabot? Why don’t you just start calling people “poopie-head”?

    I wouldn’t be so confident about the cluelessness of Obama’s supporters in “the art of political persuasion.” They persuaded many of Hillary’s base supporters to cross over and yet again have taken a larger than expected margin of victory in a state with few African Americans (Wisc). Don’t believe me, though, read the LA Times: http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-analysis20feb20,0,5566117.story

    Andrew, maybe I don’t understand your comment above, but you seem maybe to be seeing the writing on the wall? I can understand and respect that you won’t totally like it, but she’s gonna lose. Texas and Ohio will likely be too tight to close the delegate gap, and I’m willing to bet now that she might not even win them. We’ll see. But if I’m right, at least it’ll be more fun to read this blog when I don’t feel compelled to disagree so much with ya.


  7. demmother
    February 20, 2008 at 6:57 pm

    it ain’t over til it’s over

    This is a great year to be a Democrat!

  8. Bladerunner
    February 21, 2008 at 1:52 am

    James—You were claiming the beginning of the end of Clinton was Iowa and that she would be out after New Hampshire. You may end up being right…finally…
    but for Andrew and others its important to finish the process. Despite all the spin and the math thats being put out, Clinton could win the nomination. She needs a run of her own but thats what happens sometimes in ball games, prize fights and elections.

    Don’t be so sure that you’ll agree with Andrew if you’re right about Obama. Andrew might take a page out of your book and decide to take a walk on the presidential race and concentrate on local contests.

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