You most likely are right on all counts. But surprises can pop out of nowhere.

Central county and Santa Ana has had some surprising elections in the past decade.

I think that the Hispanic wave has flowed back to the sea and has been replaced by the Viet clout.

And Gilchrist could end up being Sanchez’s “Otto Bade” in the upcoming election, by inadvertently helping fend off the emerging Viet clout by bringing in more votes from those Hispanic’s who normally don’t vote.

Or everyone will think that the carpet bagging fool is no threat at all, and stay home and not vote. If her supporters don’t bother to vote, someone is out of a job.

If Sanchez runs her usual campaign–which she will–she will win big. Sanchez only knows one way to run–full bore–and she treats all opposition seriously–even ones as far out into the ozone as Tan Nguyen and now the carpetbagging Gilchrist.

If you’re going to cite historical examples, get them right. Dornan beat Patterson is a Republican tsunami year–1984. The tsunami thats going to take place in 2008 will be blue, not red. Take a look at the turnout around the country where both parties have competitive primaries. It’s a bear market for the Reds. And as for Patterson, a great guy but he never worked the district like Sanchez does. He was ripe for a fall: Sanchez continues to stand tall.

Daucher may have been a carpetbagger but she was a well known assemblywoman who was a moderate–something Ackerman wisely decided was necessary to give the GOP their best shot at taking back the seat. He almost made it. Gilchrist is about as far from a moderate as one could get.
he’s worth about an extra 10% turnout in the Latino community, which means Sanchez probably beats him by 30-40 points.

Your low vote total in the 47thCD point is a non sequiter. The total vote has consistently been lower then district surrounding the 47th and Sanchez consistently wins big.

Finally, the Nativo revisionism is a red herring. There is a difference between 1996 and today; the district is more Latino, Sanchez has been a popular congresswoman since then and Jim Gilchrist has done a wonderful job of making a fool out of himself in the interim.

Please cook, encourage your friend Gilchrist. As I said over at Red County, the sound we all will be hearing will be the kaching, kaching, kaching of her campaign treasury as money pours in. It will help guarantee that she has more then enough money to spread around to other Democratic congressional candidates. She would have had to work hard to raise that expenditure money before grand dragon Jim discovered the 47th District. Now it will be pastures of plenty. I’m sure the beneficiaries of her new largess will send thank yous to Gilchrist, copies to the Republican congressional candidates who will be the only congressional candidates Gilchrist will help defeat. There will be a new name for this indirect contribution against your own candidates–”the Gilchrist Own Goal.”

If the congresswoman runs her usual campaign, she could find history repeating itself.

B-1 ran his usual campaign and lost. He didn’t think the voters would elect a woman married to a millionaire from Los Angeles.

And the Ex-Mayor of Santa Ana Patterson (Democrat) lost that seat to a Loud mouth carpet bagging Republican from Los Angeles, AKA B-1 Bob Dornan.

Even lately the local state senator had a hard election against a carpetbagger from Brea.

There is also a difference between 2008 and 1996, Lopez isn’t registering 2000 new citizens a month like in 1996. ( and it was proved a massive amount of them were registered before becoming citizens, voiding their votes and registrations.) (And almost costing Sanchez her victory)

In the 47th, the winner gets less votes than the losers in all the surrounding districts. An easy target for someone who can come here with a bag of votes in tow.

I hope our congresswoman wont take him as a minor threat making the same mistake her predecessors in the 47th did when they lost to carpetbaggers.

A Viet candidate in the race? Then he or she would have to beat out Gilchrist for the party nod. Gilchrist still lives in South County, so he’ll be carpetbagging at best (maybe Tom Umberg can rent him an apartment cheap).

Truth be told, Loretta will run her usual campaign. Unlike Dornan, she doesn’t take her constituents for granted.

And she probably won’t spend more than she needs to.

This means that the political war chest she has will most likely stay home and not be available to underwrite other democratic candidates campaigns.

I think Gilchrist would not be that much of a threat, but some of the posters here must think so by looking at the use of demonizing adjectives like, “racist, bigots, a joke, embarrassment, buffoon, douche bag”.

How do you spell term limits? G-i-l-c-h-r-i-s-t, .