In case you didn’t know, I always love me some Jon Lansner. He is one of my favorite Register bloggers, and he always does a great job in keeping up with our wild & crazy real estate market here. But anyways, Lansner has some interesting news today.
It looks like OC home inventory is at a 7-month low. So what does this mean? Increased sales? A possible turnaround? Happy days are here again?
Not so fast.
Market watcher Steve Thomas at Re/Max Real Estate Services in Aliso Viejo every two weeks calculates Ã‚â€œmarket time,Ã‚â€ a benchmark of how many months it theoretically takes to sell all the inventory in the local MLS for-sale listings at the current pace of pending deals being made. By this Thomas logic, it would take 9.73 months for buyers to gobble up all homes listed for sale last Thursday at the current pace of deals vs. 12.51 months two weeks earlier and vs. 4.87 months a year ago. Last ThursdayÃ‚â€™s Ã‚â€œmarket timeÃ‚â€ is the lowest since late July. A key reason: the latest count deals in escrow of 1,568 is down 57% vs. Jan. 19. But please note: By ThomasÃ‚â€™s math, in the past two weeks the number of distressed properties (foreclosure and short sale) listed for sale is up 296, or +7.1%, while the inventory of non-distressed listings fell 282, or -2.5%.
Hmmm, so it looks like the internals aren’t as pretty here. Inventory for distressed properties is still rising. So does this spell doom? Are we in for more real estate gloom?
What are you thinking about the current state of real estate? Are you seeing fewer homes for sale? Or just more foreclosed properties for sale? Is this the beginning of a real bear market for OC homes, or the first signs of a returning bull market?
Tell me what you think.