2 comments for “Clinton, McCain Take Florida

  1. a
    January 29, 2008 at 7:52 pm

    No news in a Clinton victory in Florida. They have no delegates and nobody campaigned there. You already know that.

  2. January 29, 2008 at 7:56 pm

    The results from the Florida Primary may have an impact on the Democratic nomination contest but not necessarily in favor of Hillary Clinton.

    Clinton won a plurality of votes in a relatively low turnout contest where the Democrats did not actively campaign and independent (Decline to State) voters were not allowed to weigh in for either Republicans or Democrats. Barack Obama does well where he campaigns and the fact that Clinton won the contest, which awards no delegates to the national convention, is based more upon her name recognition support among traditional party line voters.

    The problem for Clinton is that despite a victory in Florida she is still trailing Obama in awarded delegates. The other problem is the reality that her appeal is less powerful among independent and younger voters.

    The race for the Democratic nomination is looking more and more like we may not have a clear likely nominee coming out of the February 5th primaries. It is clear that 20% of the likely Democratic primary voters are not sold on either of the from-runners and former Senator Edwards is the alternative choice among these voters. The numbers for Senator Edwards nationally are tracking between 16% and 18% and that doesn’t help either of the top two reach the magic number of delegates needed to win the nomination.

    California Primary voters have the opportunity to help decide who the nominee of the Democratic and Republican parties will be. We need to be mindful of how the person we vote for can perform in head to head contests with potential Republican nominees. Voters need to be mindful of the closeness in the polls between Republican candidates McCain and Romney and either Clinton or Obama. According to Rasmussen polling Edwards has the highest favorability ratings of the Democrats as well as the best performance in head to head match-ups against all Republican candidates.

    In the Democratic race the real possibility that no candidate will win enough delegates to seal up the nomination before the convention will also help reduce the ability of 527 groups to “swift-boat” whoever the Democratic nominee is. This will be good for Democrats in the general election.

Comments are closed.