Purple County?

Purple CA 2006 ElectionEncouraging news from pollster Stan Greenburg; his new report shows a promising outcome for Democrats in general in 2008 both in the presidential race and in Congress.  Here is the report.

The Key findings here, as published by Political Wire, are:

  • The “opinion elite” in the country — those with a college education and earning more than $75,000 — support a Democratic presidential candidate by an 11 point margin.
  • Independents have defected from Republican candidates and now support a Democrat for president by 19 points.
  • Young voters are breaking to Democrats with landslide margins.
  • Married women — a key swing vote — are breaking marginally for the Democrats this year after swinging strongly for the Republicans in 2004.
  • Unmarried women — a key bloc of “base” voters for Democrats — pick the Democratic candidate by two to one margin.

Now the whole question remains, what has to happen to Orange County to turn this Red Country a strong shade of purple?  I look to the growth projections for the county and the demographics of these new Orange County residents, and I can’t help but believe registrations for Democrats are on the way up.

  25 comments for “Purple County?

  1. August 13, 2007 at 4:42 pm

    Nice post Dan! I think the OC GOP machine is pissing off a lot of voters and God knows that the Bush administration and the lame Republicans in Congress have also pushed folks into the DTS or Democrat column.

    I was a loyal Reep my entire life – and I will NEVER return to the GOP.

  2. Dan Chmielewski
    August 13, 2007 at 5:16 pm

    Well, I’m wondering how the Hugh Hewitt’s, Matt Cunningham’s and Jon Flieschman’s of the world will feel about the surveillance programs, and executive power plays of the president’s office when Hillary gets elected.

  3. Andrew Davey
    August 13, 2007 at 6:08 pm

    I’m wondering how the Hugh HewittÂ’s, Matt CunninghamÂ’s and Jon FlieschmanÂ’s of the world will feel about the surveillance programs, and executive power plays of the presidentÂ’s office when Hillary gets elected.

    I’m sure they’d also flip out with President Barack Obama having those powers. ;-)

    OK, OK, I just had to say that! But anyways, getting serious… No matter which Reep gets nominated, I don’t see how ANY of them can get nominated. They’ve all cast their lot with Bush and the extreme right, so they’re all really competing for a chance to lose to Clinton or Obama in the general. Sad (for them), but true.

  4. August 13, 2007 at 7:31 pm

    You guys can never understand how a Republican gets elected president — but surprise! they keep getting elected.

    But good luck riding that “we want to be defeated in Iraq” platform into the White House.

    And how does Greenburg’s national poll mean OC has turned purple?

  5. August 13, 2007 at 7:34 pm

    I think the OC GOP machine is pissing off a lot of voters

    You’re projecting, Art. Somehow, if you surveyed voters and ask those that are “pissed” at the Republican Party about the cause of their dissatisfaction, I doubt “the OC GOP machine” is even going to register.

  6. August 13, 2007 at 8:00 pm

    Matt,

    Have you seen the registration numbers? OC voters are going DTS in DROVES. Yes, people are quite sick of your party machine. And your lame president.

    And no, I don’t think you Reeps are going to hang on to the White House, unless the Democrats do the stupid thing and nominate Hillary Clinton. I guarantee that she will NEVER be president. I will pinch my nose and vote for a Reep before I will ever vote for La Clintonista!

  7. demmother
    August 13, 2007 at 8:38 pm

    “You guys can never understand how a Republican gets elected president ”

    Perhaps it is because the Dems don’t rig the Diebolds

  8. Andrew Davey
    August 13, 2007 at 8:43 pm

    Perhaps it is because the Dems donÂ’t rig the Diebolds.

    ;-)

    Good one, demmother! We actually believe in election integrity. Perhaps that’s the one thing about “Republicans winning” that we may NEVER want to understand and emulate.

  9. Flowerszzz
    August 13, 2007 at 8:46 pm

    Art hunny, sweetie…..my hubby has been DTS for YEARS….

    Andrew – election integrity LMAO> How about elected integrity? What say you to your very own Mz. Migden and her outrageous driving habits? Or you LA Mayor and his “woman” habits? Shall I go on?????

  10. August 13, 2007 at 8:53 pm

    Yes, people are quite sick of your party machine.

    I’m not denying the surge in DTS registration. But can you please produce a single solitary shred of evidence that this because of some disgust with “the party machine.”

  11. August 13, 2007 at 8:54 pm

    Perhaps it is because the Dems don’t rig the Diebolds

    No, they visit public libraries and use the phone books to manufacture false voter registrations.

  12. August 13, 2007 at 8:55 pm

    Matt,

    How about the defeat of machine favorites Trung and Carlos? Or Carona’s squeaker of a victory? Or the fact that machine favorite Diane Harkey is being recalled?

    Better yet, let’s see what happens next year, when Trung will fall on his face!

    As I wrote recently, your machine owes the people of OC an apology. Soon enough you will be paying at the polls…

  13. August 13, 2007 at 9:36 pm

    How about the defeat of machine favorites Trung and Carlos?

    I guess I must have missed all the “Vote against Trung & Carlos — they’re machine candidates” mailers, cable ads and robo calls.

    Or Carona’s squeaker of a victory?

    Oh yeah — that was about “voter disgust with the OC GOP Machine.” It had nothing to do with the year-long blizzard of scandals and bad news stories.

    Or the fact that machine favorite Diane Harkey is being recalled?

    What about it that, Art? Those folks have their own reasons for wanting to recall Harkey, and they have nothing to do with your OC GOP “Machine” boogeyman obsession.

    As I wrote recently, your machine owes the people of OC an apology. Soon enough you will be paying at the polls…

    “My” machine– sure Art. Whatever floats your fever swamp. We’ll add that one to the refuse pile of Pedroza Predictions.

  14. August 13, 2007 at 9:38 pm

    Art,

    I’m still waiting for one shred of evidence that people are registering DTS because they share your disgust with “the Machine.”

  15. d'Anconia
    August 13, 2007 at 10:28 pm

    Art:

    You may want to take some of that own advice you’re giving out and check out the registration numbers yourself. In this county it is not just Republicans who are losing voters, Democrats are too, in VERY high numbers. I agree that DTS will have a stronger influence next election, but that’s because people are sick of partisan bickering.

    As a matter of fact didn’t the New Majority release a report lately bragging about how their voter reg drive is kicking the Democrats’ butt?

  16. August 13, 2007 at 11:05 pm

    d’Anconia,

    I don’t think the Democrats have anything to worry about. The Harald Martin appointment will help them register a ton of voters in Anaheim.

    But yes, the Dems have lost voters to the DTS column.

    Let’s face it – voters are angry at partisan hackery. I can’t blame them.

    But I know a lot of Republicans who are mad at the greedy consultants who run the OC GOP. They are due for a fall…

  17. August 13, 2007 at 11:15 pm

    But I know a lot of Republicans who are mad at the greedy consultants who run the OC GOP. They are due for a fall…

    Like who, Art?

    And which “greedy consultants”?

    Can you back up anything your are claiming on this thread?

  18. August 14, 2007 at 6:58 am

    Matt,

    Which greedy consultants? Your buddies of course. And no, I am not going to out my Republican friends who are mad at your amigos.

    You guys are killing the OC GOP just like Bush, Cheney, Rummy and Rove killed the GOP at the national level.

  19. Dan Chmielewski
    August 14, 2007 at 7:57 am

    “No, they visit public libraries and use the phone books to manufacture false voter registrations”

    Matt — I think I missed this story; care to provide some documentation on this charge?

    But hey, so much for caging votes, challenging ballots, illegally kicking legitimate voters off the rolls, stacking tons of voting machines in Republican districts while providing just a few in large Democratic ones; or jamming Democratic voter informaiton phone lines of election day. This was before my time in OC, but didn’t Pringle post security guards near polling places to scare immigrant voters away? I gues Republicans are just angels compared to Dems when it comes to Election Day.

    Flowerzz, you forgot Mark Foley and his IMs, Duke Cunningham and his bribe price sheet, Doolittle, Jerry Lewis, Tancredo advocating nukes on Mecca, Dick Cheney’s shadow brnach of government et al…you don’t want to get into a debate on elected accountability here because you will surely lose.

  20. August 14, 2007 at 8:37 am

    To learn more about this subject, please visit http://bradblog.com/

  21. d'Anconia
    August 14, 2007 at 8:48 am

    Art-

    Just because you don’t “think the Democrats have anything to worry about” does not make it so.

    I’m glad that you admitted that the Democrats losing a lot of voters as well, but you did not address my question about the New Majority’s registration drive. How do you Democrat friends feel about their registration program?

  22. August 14, 2007 at 11:44 am

    Figures. Art makes some broad-brush accusations and then can’t back it up.

  23. Dan Chmielewski
    August 14, 2007 at 2:57 pm

    you mean like the library story?

    Matt, one question: has Bush done a good job as president? Yes or No will suffice.

    and going back to your earlier comment about how Republicans keep getting elected, part of it is placing wedge issues on ballots in swing states or aggressive challenging voter registration, or limited access to an adequate number of voting booths. I still believe Kerry was screwed over in Ohio. But Americans are loathe to kick up a commander in chief during a time of war and I believe Bush push into Iraq was al about his re-election campaign and nothing about WMDs, Democracy in Iraq. Oil and elections.

  24. August 14, 2007 at 11:56 pm

    you mean like the library story?

    ACORN got busted for the phone book registration up in Washington State. OK, it’s a bit unfair to tag it as an official “Democratic” stunt, but ACORN is one of your party’s left-wing voter reg auxiliaries.

    Matt, one question: has Bush done a good job as president? Yes or No will suffice.

    On balance, yes.

    and I believe Bush push into Iraq was al about his re-election campaign and nothing about WMDs, Democracy in Iraq.

    Yee-aah. Going to war is always a good re-election strategy, Dan. It always works so well. Just ask Truman and Johnson. That’s a seriously tin-foil thing to say.

    But if that’s your way of thinking, do you think Operation Desert Fox was all about Clinton distracting from the impeachment?

  25. Dan Chmielewski
    August 15, 2007 at 9:40 pm

    Matt –
    ACORN is not an OFFICIAL Democratic operative; I know how big you are on declaring things official or not when it comes to thigs conservative or Republican, but this is one of those times you can’t pin the tail on the donkey.

    On balance, Bush has done a good job; welcome to the 29 percent of the nation who thinks so. the other 71 percent thinks you’re nuts. On balance? What did he do that was good? NCLB is a disgrace. The debt and deficit are sky high and job growth during his term is anemic; oh but he cut cut taxes for his rich friends. And Clinton did a terible job in your viewpoint? Budget surplus, peace, allies….?

    W himself, in his autobiography, stated that his father’s Gulf War, had it lasted longer, would have helped his re-election; America has never ousted a “war president” even though Bush was re-elected with the lowest margin of victory of anysuch war president.

    Operation Desert Fox was rounded criticized by Republicans as a distraction to impeachment; Clinton was assailed for a missile attack against Iraq; you know the same thing Republicans praise Bush for doing. Ever wonder why we had increased terror alerts before the 2004 election and almost never get them now? It’s called running on a platform of fear which is all you have to sell these days.

    And I found this dittle of Republican dirty tricks to share;

    RNC Voter “Audit” Letter Raises Questions
    By Paul Kiel – August 10, 2007, 12:20 PM
    What 83 year-old William Sidwell of Queen City, Missouri found in his mailbox last week scared him. It was a letter from the Republican National Committee, but it seemed to bear grave news: “Our records show that you registered as a member of our Party in Schuyler County, MO,” the letter said. “But a recent audit of your Party affiliation turned up some irregularities.”

    Audit? Irregularities? Was he in trouble? Were they threatening him? Sidwell went immediately to his ask his son, Dennis, a licensed public accountant, for advice. You can see the letter, and the accompanying “Voter Registration Verification and Audit Form,” right here. Particularly puzzling to the both of them, Dennis told me, is that his father is a life-long Democrat.

    The letter, it turns out, is just a misleading pitch for a contribution to the RNC — one of the “irregularities” cited in the letter is that “I cannot find a record of you taking a single action in support of the Republican Party — not locally, not nationally!” A contribution, the letter suggests, would help set the record straight.

    The letter is signed by Bill Steiner, the director of the RNC’s Office of Strategic Information, a title Steiner assumed at the end of July. His responsibilities “include managing the RNC’s national voter file and Voter Vault, the committee’s highly touted micro-targeting operation,” Roll Call reported last month. And indeed, the voter “audit” requests detailed information about the voter’s voting history and current opinions on the 2008 presidential race.

    It’s unclear how many similar letters (tens of thousands? millions?) have been sent by the RNC. The RNC did not respond to our requests for comment.

    The letter “appears to be in a gray area,” David Becker, Director of People for the American Way’s Democracy Campaign and a former voting rights attorney at the Justice Department, told me. “It could potentially run afoul of the law if it led an eligible voter to believe they’re no longer eligible to vote.” The letter, Becker said, “appears designed to give that mistaken impression.”

    Rick Hasen, a professor specializing in election law at Loyola Law School, agreed that the letter was potentially misleading but didn’t think it raised serious legal issues: “It is true that some elderly people or others with limited experience might perceive the letter as some kind of official audit, complete with its statements about ‘irregularities,’” he told me. “But I believe most people would view this for what it is: a ham-handed fundraising letter, of the type sent out by both political parties to rev up the base and get contributions.”

    Karen Finney, spokeswoman for the Democratic National Committee, disagreed. “We have sent requests for people to renew their support for the party,” Finney said, but they’re “straightforward,” and don’t include “these kind of scare tactics.” She said that the letter showed that the RNC is “stooping to a level of desperation to try and hold on to support and raise money.”

Comments are closed.