High-five to the Orange Juice Blog for this encouraging news.
The following is a summary of key findings from a survey of General Election voters in the 48th Congressional District of California. These findings are based on 600 completed interviews with two matched samples of 300 likely November 2006 voters, one sample from areas exposed to advertising and canvassing from the Young Campaign, and the other sample in areas untargeted by the Young Campaign. Interviews were conducted September 25-28, 2006. [Note: the survey took place before the Foley story broke.] Sampling error is +/- 6% within each area.
John Campbell has yet to solidify his relationship to the voters. Voters in the exposed area, despite its Republican leanings, have not committed to re-elect Campbell, with only 32% indicating they would re-elect him, compared to 68% who would either vote for someone else (28%) or consider (40%) voting for someone else. Even in the very heavily Republican area where voters were not exposed to Young messaging, only about half the voters are committed to re-electing Campbell, far below the 74% Republican registration in the area.