48th Congressional Seat In Play

High-five to the Orange Juice Blog for this encouraging news.

Poll shows Democrat Steve Young “very competitive”

The following is a summary of key findings from a survey of General Election voters in the 48th Congressional District of California. These findings are based on 600 completed interviews with two matched samples of 300 likely November 2006 voters, one sample from areas exposed to advertising and canvassing from the Young Campaign, and the other sample in areas untargeted by the Young Campaign. Interviews were conducted September 25-28, 2006. [Note: the survey took place before the Foley story broke.] Sampling error is +/- 6% within each area.

John Campbell has yet to solidify his relationship to the voters. Voters in the exposed area, despite its Republican leanings, have not committed to re-elect Campbell, with only 32% indicating they would re-elect him, compared to 68% who would either vote for someone else (28%) or consider (40%) voting for someone else. Even in the very heavily Republican area where voters were not exposed to Young messaging, only about half the voters are committed to re-electing Campbell, far below the 74% Republican registration in the area.

Read the Orange Juice Post

  4 comments for “48th Congressional Seat In Play

  1. October 5, 2006 at 1:23 pm

    Congrats to Steve and everyone who’s working that race in the 48th!

    No one ever expected them to go anywhere, and now they even have Jubal huffing and puffing!

    Good for them. : )

  2. October 5, 2006 at 4:53 pm

    That’s odd. The press release I got from the Young campaign reported the poll as having Campbell at 40%, Young at 36% and 21% undecided. The group they polled was 47% Republican and 38% Democrat — a 9% point advantage for the GOP. But I just checked and the district is actually 49.6% GOP and 27.1% Dem — a 22.5% point spread. Unless there are some text messages we haven’t heard about, I doubt Campbell is too worried about this one.

  3. October 6, 2006 at 11:42 am

    Marty —
    why haven’t you gotten any reaction from the OC GOP congressional delegation on Foley-gate/Page-gate. Hugh Hewitt is blaming the Pages and a right wing blog has outed the identity of one of the kids. With every House member’s job on the line, shouldn’t you be polling reaciton about how the House GOP majority has handled this case?

  4. October 6, 2006 at 12:33 pm

    Just talked to Steve Young and he said that the poll was not intended to reflect the current sentiment — or party affiliation –of the entire district. Rather, it targeted areas where he had advertised and walked door-to-door. “We wanted to see how effective our walking and advertising had been.”

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